Evaluation of GCMs Historical Simulations of Monthly and Seasonal Climatology over Bolivia

Abstract:

Bolivia is one of the developing countries in South America with the potential of agricultural development, land use change, and industrialization in the future. It has been shown by past studies that this region is one of the most vulnerable areas in getting adapted to the climate change in South America. Due to the heterogeneity in topography in Bolivia, it is difficult to capture future impacts of the climate change with the coarse resolution of current GCMs. In order to represent these changes at a more appropriate scale, downscaled simulations using different GCMs are required. Prior to downscaling, evaluation of the GCMs is a necessary step to take to ensure physically meaningful results. This is the first part of the broader project on evaluating climate impacts on Bolivia. This evaluation has been done using climate variables including precipitation, temperature and wind and pressure components to assess climate patterns of the region. Climate processes such as the annual, seasonal and monthly positions of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ), Bolivian High, Chaco Low and South American Low Level Jet (SALLJ) have been analyzed. Eight GCMs have been employed in this evaluation, those which have generated the climate patterns of South America closer to reality in the past different case studies. The result of this research will improve the accuracy of further regional downscaling outputs.