H41H-07
The Quantification and Identification of Land Use Change Impacts to Hydrology in Brazil from Headwater to Large Basin Scales

Thursday, 17 December 2015: 09:30
3011 (Moscone West)
Morgan C Levy, University of California Berkeley, Energy and Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States, Alan V Lopes, University of California Berkeley, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, United States, Avery Cohn, Tufts University, The Fletcher School, Medford, MA, United States and Sally E Thompson, University of California Berkeley, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Berkeley, CA, United States
Abstract:
Rapid agricultural expansion and intensification has characterized the land use/cover change (LUCC) dynamics of a large region spanning the southern rainforest and savanna biomes of Brazil. Despite a plethora of modeling analyses and small-scale investigations, the cumulative effects of this transformation on hydrological processes at multiple scales remain unclear. Yet quantifying the links between LUCC and hydrological response is essential to support evidence-based sustainable development of industry, society, and environment, particularly in this region, which includes the headwaters of Brazil’s major rivers, the climatically-crucial Amazon transition region, and Brazil’s agricultural breadbasket. Empirical analyses that can inform land use policy in this region and are sensitive to climate, agriculture and hydrological outcomes are critically needed.

This study leverages the increased availability of remotely-sensed data products and a spatially dispersed gauging network to investigate the effects of a decade of LUCC on streamflow in over 150 river basins. Using a collection of statistical techniques to identify causal relationships and isolate LUCC effects from confounding variables such as climate, we quantify the sensitivity of hydrological dynamics to LUCC from small watersheds to regional scales.

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