Examining Communities at Risk: Physical and Socioeconomic Impacts of an Earthquake Scenario on the Hayward Fault (The HayWired Scenario)

Abstract:

This research led by the U.S. Geological Survey aims to inform and stimulate the development of plans and policies in disaster management and hazard mitigation that will help improve the capacity of residents, businesses and communities to rebound from disasters. As was evidenced in the 1994 Northridge earthquake, “ghost towns” emerged in neighborhoods with high concentrations of damaged rental housing. Also, rental properties that served predominantly lower income households had more difficulty financing repairs which led to blight and other long-term community recovery challenges. Our approach is to develop a framework for identifying and spatially analyzing communities at risk of long-term displacement and recovery challenges for an earthquake scenario.

The HayWired scenario postulates a M7.05 earthquake on the Hayward Fault in the San Francisco Bay Area with surface fault rupture, liquefaction, landslides, and fires, as well as subsequent aftershocks. The analytical framework relies on the literature and prior disaster experience to identify and systematically combine physical and socioeconomic impacts of the earthquake sequence with pre-existing socioeconomic conditions to identify areas where housing and building damage, lifeline service disruption, and socioeconomic challenges intersect and can potentially lead to long-term displacements of people, businesses, and jobs. Hazus analyses estimate $46 billion in building damage from the HayWired main shock, which increases by 10-25% due to aftershocks. Heavy damage to large apartment buildings exceeds many other housing types, and preliminary analyses identify neighborhoods where these damage concentrations also intersect with concentrations of low income households. Also, in some counties, the estimated population displaced from severely damaged housing far exceeds the number of vacant housing units, which means residents may be forced to move well away from former neighborhoods and even outside the region altogether.