Linking River Basin Modifications and Rural Soil and Water Management Practices in Tropical Deltas to Sea Level Rise Vulnerability

Abstract:

The increased vulnerability of deltaic communities to coastal flooding as a result of upstream engineering has been acknowledged for decades. What has received less attention is the sensitivity of deltas to the interactions between river basin modifications and local scale cultivation and irrigation. Combined with reduced river and sediment discharge, soil and water management practices in coastal areas may exacerbate the risk of tidal flooding, erosion of arable land, and salinization of soils and groundwater associated with sea level rise. This represents a cruel irony to smallholder subsistence farmers whose priorities are food, water and economic security, rather than sustainability of the environment. Such issues challenge disciplinary approaches and require integrated social-biophysical models able to understand and diagnose these complex relationships. This study applies a new conceptual framework to define the relevant social and physical units operating on the common pool resources of climate, water and sediment in the Bengal Delta (Bangladesh). The new framework will inform development of a nested geospatial analysis and a coupled model to identify multi-scale social-biophysical feedbacks associated with smallholder soil and water management practices, coastal dynamics, basin modification, and climate vulnerability in tropical deltas. The framework was used to create household surveys for collecting data on climate perceptions, land and water management, and governance. Test surveys were administered to rural farmers in 14 villages during a reconnaissance visit to coastal Bangladesh. Initial results demonstrate complexity and heterogeneity at the local scale in both biophysical conditions and decision-making. More importantly, the results illuminate how national and geopolitical-level policies scale down to impact local-level environmental and social stability in communities already vulnerable to coastal flooding. Here, we will discuss components of the new conceptual framework, present results from the test surveys, and demonstrate how the framework can be dynamically adapted to reflect complex interactions at multiple scales.