A Coastal Flood Decision Support Tool for Forecast Operations in Alaska

Abstract:

ABSTRACT

Coastal flooding and erosion poses a serious threat to infrastructure, livelihood, and property for

communities along Alaska’s northern and western coastline. While the National Weather Service

Alaska Region (NWS-AR) forecasts conditions favorable for coastal flooding, an improvement

can be made in communicating event impacts between NWS-AR and local residents. Scientific

jargon used by NWS-AR to indicate the severity of flooding potential is often misconstrued by

residents. Additionally, the coastal flood forecasting process is cumbersome and time

consuming due to scattered sources of flood guidance. To alleviate these problems, a single

coastal flooding decision support tool was created for the Fairbanks Weather Forecast Office to

help bridge the communication gap, streamline the forecast and warning process, and take into

account both the meteorological and socioeconomic systems at work during a flood event. This

tool builds on previous research and data collected by the Alaska Division of Geological and

Geophysical Surveys (DGGS) and the NWS-AR, using high resolution elevation data to model

the impacts of storm tide rise above the mean lower low water level on five of the most at-risk

communities along the Alaskan coast. Important local buildings and infrastructure are

highlighted, allowing forecasters to relate the severity of the storm tide in terms of local

landmarks that are familiar to residents. In this way, this decision support tool allows for a

conversion from model output storm tide levels into real world impacts that are easily understood

by forecasters, emergency managers, and other stakeholders, helping to build a Weather-Ready

Nation. An overview of the new coastal flood decision support tool in NWS-AR forecast

operations will be discussed.

KEYWORDS

Forecasting; coastal flooding; coastal hazards; decision support