Triggers for the Collapse of Ice Shelves in Antarctica: Investigating Compressive Arch Failure with Numerical Models

Abstract:

Antarctic ice shelves restrain, or buttress, grounded ice from flowing freely into the ocean by redistributing the force of the ice flow to pinning points (ice rises) at the ice front and shear margins at adjacent bay walls. This buttressing process typically defines a ‘compressive arch’ in the strain rate-field of the ice shelf, where the smallest principal component transitions from compressive inland of the arch to extensive seaward of the arch. If the compressive arch is breached due to iceberg calving at the ice front or thinning at the shear margins, the ice shelf will retreat irreversibly to a new stable configuration or collapse entirely. This retreat can compromise ice shelf buttressing, resulting in sea-level rise and ocean freshening as grounded ice flows unrestricted into the ocean. Here, we investigate the dynamics of compressive arch failure using Larsen C ice shelf as a test case for a larger study that will include several other ice shelves and projections for sea-level rise. We use satellite observations to develop a steady state model of Larsen C in Elmer/ICE, a finite element ice sheet/ice flow software package. We run calving and thinning simulations to determine the conditions needed to trigger ice shelf retreat via compressive arch failure and discuss the likelihood of these scenarios occurring in relation to extrapolations of current melt profiles and calving trends.