Two decades of spatiotemporal variations in subduction zone coupling offshore Japan

Abstract:

Spatial patterns of coupling on global subduction zones can be used to guide seismic hazard assessment, but estimates of coupling are often constrained using a limited temporal range of geodetic data. Here we analyze 19 years of observations from the GEONET network to assess time-dependent variations in the spatial distribution of coupling on the subduction zones offshore Japan. We divide the position time series into five, 3.75-year epochs each decomposed into best-fit velocity, periodic signals, coseismic offsets, and postseismic effects following five major earthquakes. Nominally interseismic velocities are interpreted in terms of combined tectonic block motions and earthquake cycle activity. Our derived velocity fields reveal significant consistency since 1996 in the spatial distribution of coupling on the Nankai subduction zone, with variation limited primarily to Tokai, where long-term slow slip events have occurred, and persistently coupled regions coincident with areas that slipped in historic great earthquakes, including estimates of the 1707 Hoei earthquake based on tsunami deposits. On the Sagami subduction zone south of Tokyo, we estimate relatively stable coupling through time, though the area of coupling is reduced by the occurrence of a slow-slip event in 2002. On the Japan Trench, we image significant coupling variations owing to effects of the 1994 Sanriku-oki, 2003 Tokachi-oki, and 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquakes. In particular, strong coupling becomes more spatially extensive following the 1994 event until 2011, and a decrease in coupling and occurrence of coseismic-sense slip precede the Tohoku-oki event. Despite occurrence of the 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake, coupling offshore Hokkaido suggests ongoing seismic hazard, possibly similar to past Mw 9-class earthquakes interpreted from coastal paleoseismic records. This time-dependent analysis of interseismic deformation illuminates rich diversity in the distribution of subduction zone processes, including spatiotemporal stability in coupling, effective reduction in strongly coupled regions due to aseismic, thrust-sense slip events, and broad changes in the distribution of coupling following major earthquakes.