Hurricane Sandy: Caught in the eye of the storm and a city's adaptation response

Abstract:

The NOAA RISA program has funded the seven-institution Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN) for the past five years to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. When Hurricane Sandy struck, we were in an ideal position, making flood forecasts and communicating NOAA forecasts to the public with dozens of media placements, translating the poorly understood flood forecasts into human dimensions. In 2013 and 2015, by request of New York City (NYC), we worked through the NYC Panel on Climate Change to deliver updated climate risk assessment reports, to be used in the post‐Sandy rebuilding and resiliency efforts. These utilized innovative methodologies for probabilistic local and regional sea level change projections, and contrasted methods of dynamic versus (the more common) static flood mapping. We participated in a federal-academic partnership that developed a Sea Level Tool for Sandy Recovery that integrates CCRUN sea level rise projections with policy‐relevant FEMA flood maps, and now several updated flood maps and coastal flood mapping tools (NOAA, FEMA, and USACE) incorporate our projections.

For the adaptation response, we helped develop NYC’s $20 billion flood adaptation plan, and we were on a winning team under the Housing and Urban Development Rebuild By Design (RBD) competition, a few of the many opportunities that arose with negligible additional funding and which CCRUN funds supported. Our work at times disrupted standard lines of thinking, but NYC showed an openness to altering course. In one case we showed that an NYC plan of wetland restoration in Jamaica Bay would provide no reduction in flooding unless deep-dredged channels circumventing them were shallowed or narrowed. In another, the lead author’s RBD team challenged the notion at one location that levees were the solution to accelerating sea level rise, developing a plan to use ecological breakwaters and layered components of physical and social resilience. CCRUN has succeeded in winning another five years of RISA funding, and this will enable us to continue our climate risk and adaptation work for the entire Urban Northeast.