Uncertainties in Surface Layer Modeling

Abstract:

A central problem for micrometeorologists has been the relationship of air-surface exchange rates of momentum and heat to quantities that can be predicted with confidence. The flux-gradient profile developed through Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) provides an integration of the dimensionless wind shear expression where is an empirically derived expression for stable and unstable atmospheric conditions. Empirically derived expressions are far from universally accepted (Garratt, 1992, Table A5). Regardless of what form of these relationships might be used, their significance over any short period of time is questionable since all of these relationships between fluxes and gradients apply to averages that might rarely occur. It is well accepted that the assumption of stationarity and homogeneity do not reflect the true chaotic nature of the processes that control the variables considered in these relationships, with the net consequence that the levels of predictability theoretically attainable might never be realized in practice. This matter is of direct relevance to modern prognostic models which construct forecasts by assuming the universal applicability of relationships among averages for the lower atmosphere, which rarely maintains an average state.

Under a Cooperative research and Development Agreement between NOAA and Duke Energy Generation, NOAA/ATDD conducted atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) research using Duke renewable energy sites as research testbeds. One aspect of this research has been the evaluation of legacy flux-gradient formulations (the ϕ functions, see Monin and Obukhov, 1954) for the exchange of heat and momentum. At the Duke Energy Ocotillo site, NOAA/ATDD installed sonic anemometers reporting wind and temperature fluctuations at 10Hz at eight elevations. From these observations, ϕ_M and ϕ_H were derived from a two-year database of mean and turbulent wind and temperature observations. From this extensive measurement database, using a methodology proposed by Kanenasu, Wesely and Hicks (1979), the overall dependence of ϕ_M and ϕ_H on is characterized. Results indicate considerable scatter with the familiar relationships, such as Paulson (1970), best describing the averages; however it is the scatter that largely defines the attainable levels of predictability.