Assessment of climate change impacts on streamflow dynamics in the headwaters of the Amazon River basin

Abstract:

The Amazon River basin is the largest watershed in the world containing thousands of tributaries. Although the mainstream and its larger tributaries have been the focus on much research, there has been few studies focused on the hydrodynamics of smaller rivers in the foothills of the Andes Mountains. These smaller rivers are of particular importance for the fishery industry because fish migrate up these headwater rivers to spawn. During the rainy season, fish wait for storm event to increase water depths to a sufficient level for their passage. Understanding how streamflow dynamics will change in response to future conditions is vital for the sustainable management of the fishery industry.

In this paper, we focus on improving the accuracy of river discharge estimates on relatively small-scale sub-catchments (100 ~ 40,000 km²) in the headwaters of the Amazon River basin. The Hillslope River Routing (HRR) hydrologic model and remotely sensed datasets are used. We provide annual runoff, seasonal patterns, and daily discharge characteristics for 81 known migration reaches. The model is calibrated for the period 2000-2014 and climate forecasts for the period 2070-2100 are used to assess future changes in streamflow dynamics. The forecasts for the 2070 to 2100 period were obtained by selecting 5 climate models from IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) based on their ability to represent the main aspects of recent (1970 to 2000) Amazon climate.

The river network for the HRR model is developing using surface topography based on the SRTM digital elevation model. Key model forcings include precipitation (TRMM 3B42) and evapotranspiration (MODIS ET, MOD16). Model parameters for soil depth, hydraulic conductivity, runoff coefficients and lateral routing were initially approximated based on literature values and adjusted during calibration. Measurements from stream gauges located near the reaches of interest were used for calibration. Model calibration results and simulated changes in future streamflow dynamics for the 81 river reaches are presented.