Tipping Points towards Regional Forest or Urban Transition in Stressed Rural Areas: An Agent-based Modelling Application of Socio-Economic Shifts in Rural Vermont US

Abstract:

In rural areas where farming competes with urban development and environmental amenities, urban and forest transitions occur simultaneously at different locales with different rates due to the underlying socio-economic shifts. Here we develop an interactive land use transition agent-based model (ILUTABM) in which farmers’ land use decisions are made contingent on expansion and location choices of urban businesses and urban residences, as well as farmers’ perceived ecosystem services produced by their land holdings. The ILUTABM simulates heterogeneity in land use decisions at parcel levels by differentiating decision making processes for agricultural and urban landowners. Landowners are simulated to make land-use transition decisions as bounded rational agents that maximize their partial expected utility functions under different underlying socio-economic conditions given the category of a landowner and the spatial characteristics of the landowner’s landholdings. The ILUTABM is parameterized by spatial data sets such as National Land Cover Database (NLCD), zoning, parcels, property prices, US census, farmers surveys, building/facility characteristics, soil, slope and elevation. We then apply the ILUTABM to the rural Vermont landscape, located in the Northeast Arm District of Lake Champlain and the downstream sub-watersheds of Missisquoi River, to generate phase transitions of rural land towards urban land near peri-urban areas and towards forest land near financially stressed farmlands during 2001-2051. Possible tipping point trajectories of rural land towards regional forest or urban transition are simulated under three socio-economic scenarios: business as usual (ILUTABM calibrated to 2011 NLCD), increased incentives for conservation easements, and increased incentives for attracting urban residences and businesses.