The Present Near-Surface Inventory of Water on Mars: How well does it Constrain the Existence of a Former Ocean?

Abstract:

Carr and Head (Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 726–732, 2015) have estimated that the size of the present-day inventory of near-surface water on Mars (that which exists in climatically exchangeable reservoirs) is equal to a global equivalent layer (GEL) ~34 m deep. Based on this estimate, they have attempted to extrapolate the evolution of this inventory backward in time, taking into account the introduction of new water by volcanism and outflow channel activity and the loss of water by exospheric escape. They conclude that, at the end of the Noachian, Mars had a near-surface water inventory of ~24 m which, they argue, was incompatible with the existence of a former ocean.

Here, we argue that the uncertainties associated with Carr and Head analysis are significant and preclude its use as a reliable constraint on the size of the Noachian inventory of water or the presence of an early ocean. Indeed, consideration of the geologic evolution of the northern plains suggest that, if early Mars possessed an inventory of water sufficient to form an early ocean, then a frozen relic of that body may survive at depth to the present day. While sublimation undoubtedly depleted some fraction of the ocean’s initial inventory of ice, the subsequent accumulation of ~0.5 - 1.5 km of sediments and volcanics, combined with recurrent episodes of outflow channel activity and obliquity-driven polar ice redistribution, could have led to the development of a complex volatile stratigraphy throughout the northern plains (at depths far below those that can be assessed as part of the present-day near-surface inventory). Thus, even if the present near-surface inventory of ice could be determined with high precision, it would place no constraint on either the past near-surface inventory of H₂O or the former presence of a northern ocean.