Quantifying the Effects of Volcanic Aerosols on Lower Tropospheric Temperature

Abstract:

We present a statistical methodology to quantify the impact of volcanic activity on
climate data. We focus on volcanic aerosol forcing over the period 1979 to 2013
and examine three cases of volcanic activity: (1) No volcanic activity; (2) El Chichón
and Pinatubo eruptions only; and (3) late 20th and early 21st century volcanic activity.
Using a Bayesian framework, we jointly estimate the trend, El Ni\~ no/Southern
Oscillation, and volcanic signal in the observed and climate model simulation of
tropospheric temperature. Our analysis clearly illustrates the effects of volcanic
activity on the temperature of the lower troposphere.