The Earth's Energy Budget Across CMIP5 Models

Abstract:

The earth's energy budget is analyzed across models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) archive and compared with observations. The total energy added to the earth system along with the fate of that energy is analyzed. The energy added to the system is derived from the radiative forcing and is separated into individual forcing terms. The fate of the energy is controlled by the size of the climate feedback to the applied forcing. The relationship between the forcing, feedback, and the stored energy varies greatly across CMIP5 models. The model relationships are compared to observations during the recent time period since 1950 (including the hiatus period). This provides a stringent test of model fidelity against observation, although in some models it is hampered by the inability to adequately remove model drifts. It is found that while the multi-model means of the terms in the earth's energy budgets are in reasonable agreement with observations there are substantial range across individual models.