Why did the Nepal Gorkha Earthquake Have so few Effects on Glacial Lakes?

Abstract:

On 25 April 2015, a magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Nepal. Subsequently many large aftershocks shook the region, including one of magnitude 7.3. Much damage occurred and over 4000 landslides were triggered, but fortunately few earthquake effects on glacier lakes have been identified and no large glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have been clearly attributed to the quakes. Why were the lakes largely unscathed? We will (1) review some cases around the world where earthquakes have apparently triggered responses among glaciers and glacier- or moraine-dammed lakes, and how these responses took place, (2) consider why earthquakes in general might not commonly have such large impacts on glacial lakes as widely expected; (3) show some case examples of glacial moraine-dammed lakes in Nepal and Tibet where few visible effects of the Gorkha earthquake (and aftershocks) were documented; and (4) consider why specifically the Gorkha earthquake (+ aftershocks) caused very few and mild effects.

Earthquake shaking and steep slopes result in thousands of landslides when big earthquakes occur in mountains; furthermore, large mass movements into glacial lakes are a known trigger of many GLOFs. Worldwide there is little evidence, contrary to speculation, and now reinforced by the Gorkha quake, that earthquakes—even big ones happening near glacier lakes—are normally a major trigger of GLOFs. There may be several explanations. The Gorkha earthquake might have caused less shaking than its total released energy suggests, thus further sparing the Himalayan lakes from catastrophe.

A possible further protective aspect is that glacial lakes mainly occur far up alpine valleys. It is known from other quakes that when there is shallow slip and rugged relief, surface wave modes tend to be absorbed and scattered as these waves propagate across mountain ranges, and body waves are focused into ridges, thus reducing the ground accelerations on valley floors (where lakes occur) and commonly increasing ground accelerations along some ridges. Extreme Himalayan relief may accentuate topographic control of wave scattering and amplitude diminution/enhancement known from other regions having less extreme relief. Although future big earthquakes occurring near glacial lakes remain a threat, climate change may contribute more to the threat of GLOFs.