New Cascadia subduction zone tsunami inundation modeling to guide relocation of coastal infrastucture for Indian tribes on the northern Washington coast

Abstract:

There have been advances in understanding the potential for great tsunamigenic earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone, motivating an effort to update the assessment of tsunami hazards on the Washington coast. Fine resolution (1/3 arc-second) digital elevation models (DEMs) of the Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern Olympic Peninsula have recently been made available, and coastal Indian tribes (Quinault, Hoh, and Quileute) have made plans to move important infrastructure out of their tsunami hazard zones. We have made numerical simulations of tsunamis incident on the Quinault, Hoh, Quileute, and Makah Reservations and adjacent coast with the GeoClaw numerical model [http://depts.washington.edu/clawpack/geoclaw/] for a local tsunami generated by a 9.1M Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, designated L1 by Witter and others (DOGAMI Special Paper 43). This scenario is estimated to have `2% probability of nonexceedance in 50 years, which would be comparable to the International Building Code standard for seismic loading on structures of high importance, and provides appropriate guidance to the affected communities for siting of their significant infrastructure.