Regional Estimates of Drought-Induced Tree Canopy Loss across Texas

Abstract:

The severe drought of 2011 killed millions of trees across the state of Texas. Drought-induced tree-mortality can have significant impacts to carbon cycling, regional biophysics, and community composition. We quantified canopy cover loss across the state using remotely sensed imagery from before and after the drought at multiple scales. First, we classified ~200 orthophotos (1-m spatial resolution) from the National Agriculture Imagery Program, using a supervised maximum likelihood classification. Area of canopy cover loss in these classifications was highly correlated (R² = 0.8) with ground estimates of canopy cover loss, measured in 74 plots across 15 different sites in Texas. These 1-m orthophoto classifications were then used to calibrate and validate coarser scale (30-m) Landsat imagery to create wall-to-wall tree canopy cover loss maps across the state of Texas. We quantified percent dead and live canopy within each pixel of Landsat to create continuous maps of dead and live tree cover, using two approaches: (1) a zero-inflated beta distribution model and (2) a random forest algorithm. Widespread canopy loss occurred across all the major natural systems of Texas, with the Edwards Plateau region most affected. In this region, on average, 10% of the forested area was lost due to the 2011 drought. We also identified climatic thresholds that controlled the spatial distribution of tree canopy loss across the state. However, surprisingly, there were many local hot spots of canopy loss, suggesting that not only climatic factors could explain the spatial patterns of canopy loss, but rather other factors related to soil, landscape, management, and stand density also likely played a role. As increases in extreme droughts are predicted to occur with climate change, it will become important to define methods that can detect associated drought-induced tree mortality across large regions. These maps could then be used (1) to quantify impacts to carbon cycling and regional biophysics, (2) to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of tree mortality, and (3) to calibrate and/or validate mortality algorithms in regional models.