Surface and Column Aerosol Impacts of the United States' Natural Gas Transition

Abstract:

This paper quantifies the air pollution and climate impacts of the natural gas transition over the past decade in the United States. We integrate satellite and ground measurements with chemical transport modeling to understand the impact of of the large-scale shift from coal to natural gas on the quantity and chemical composition of column aerosol and surface particulate matter. We leverage the natural experiment of individual units that changed technologies (a sharp discontinuity) as well as state-level changes from old plants being taken offline and new ones being brought online (a soft discontinuity) and connect technology changes to emissions changes to detected aerosol / particulate matter changes. We use this methodology to estimate the size of the ‘sulfate’ mask due to coal consumption in the United States and understand more fully the climate implications of energy technology changes.