Large-scale processes relevant to extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the South Central U.S.: Comparing observations with CMIP5 simulations

Abstract:

In recent years, record high temperatures combined with extreme precipitation deficits have led to record-breaking droughts that have affected the Southern Plains. The 2011 drought and heat wave caused over $12B in damages across the SP region. Here, we combine station data with reanalysis to identify the hottest summers in the last 30 years. Consistent with previous analysis, we find that very hot temperatures over the region are highly correlated both precipitation as well as soil moisture deficits.

Atmospheric circulation in the SP region during summer is generally dominated by the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), which extends westward from its winter position over the Atlantic. The anticyclonic circulation could play a role in reducing convective precipitation as well as preventing disturbances from moving into the SP region. Examining the NARR reanalysis for the hottest summers of record, we find that the anticyclonic circulation associated with the NASH extends over the SP region relatively earlier in the summer and results in a comparatively stronger anticyclonic circulation, which in turn seems to be influenced by the large-scale climate variability. Specifically, the negative phase of the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern is characterized by high pressure anomalies across the southeastern and south central U.S. during summer. The two hottest years in the last three decades (1980 and 2011) also correlate with the two strongest negative PNA phases over that time.

One of the anticipated impacts of human-induced climate change is the increased risk of hot and potentially dry summers across the SP region. For that reason, we also assess to what extent CMIP5 models are able simulate the large-scale processes that, according to reanalysis, are closely related to extreme hot and dry summer conditions over the Southern Plains. Composite maps of extreme heat years simulated in the models do display a stronger-than-average anticyclonic circulation that intensifies during summer, although the amplitude is much less than the reanalysis data. How the climate models simulate the relationship of the PNA to the temperature and precipitation over the SP region and whether/how it could be related to projected changes in future extreme summers will be also discussed.