Ecosystem productivity and water stress in tropical East Africa: A Case Study of the 2010-11 drought

Abstract:

The characterization of changes in ecosystem productivity as a consequence of water stress and changing precipitation regimes is critical in defining the response of tropical ecosystems to water stress and projecting future land cover transitions in the East African tropics. Through the analysis of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF), soil moisture, rainfall and reanalysis data, this paper characterizes the 2010-11 drought in tropical East Africa. We demonstrated that SIF, a proxy of ecosystem productivity, varied with water availability during the 2010-11 drought. A comparison of the 2010-11 drought to previous regional droughts revealed that the consecutive failure of rainy seasons in fall 2010 and spring 2011 yielded a drought that is distinguished not only in intensity, but also in spatial and temporal extent as compared to an average of previous regional droughts: the 2010-11 event extended further east and with greater intensity in the southern hemisphere. Anomalously low SIF values during the 2010-11 drought are strongly correlated with those of soil moisture and precipitation. SIF also demonstrated a stronger temporal sensitivity to accumulated water deficit as compared to the conventional Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which approximates photosynthetic potential (chlorophyll content and leaf mass), from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Anomalously high rainfall during the dry seasons preceding failed rainy seasons suggest that the seasonality of East African rainfall may be transitioning from a regime characterized by biannual monsoons to one with increasing convective rainfall. Rising boundary layer height during the dry season further substantiates this conclusion by suggesting a transition towards increased deep convection during the summers. This work demonstrated the unique characteristics of the 2010-11 East African drought, and the ability of SIF to track the levels of water stress during the drought.