Verification of tropical cyclone using the KIAPS Integration Model (KIM)

Abstract:

The Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS) is a government funded non-profit research and development institute located in Seoul, South Korea. KIAPS is developing the Global Model, a backbone for the next-generation operational global numerical weather prediction (NWP) system with three-phase plans; Establishment and R&D Planning (2011-2013), Test Model Development (2014-2016), and Operational Model Development (2017-2019). As a second-phase, we have beta version of KIAPS Integration Model (KIM) that can produce reasonable global forecasting. Using the KIM model, we are evaluating the tropical cyclone forecast in the global model. To objectively provide a best estimate of the storm’s central position, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) vortex tracker, widely used in tracker algorithms. It gives the track and intensity of the storm throughout the duration of the forecast based on its algorithm. As a verification tool, we use the Model Evaluation Tool – Tropical Cyclone (MET-TC), which produces statistical evaluation. We expect these results give the statue of ability for the tropical cyclone forecast with KIM model.