H33I-1734
Method for Assessing Impacts of Global Sea Level Rise on Navigation Gate Operations
Wednesday, 16 December 2015
Poster Hall (Moscone South)
Patrick S Obrien, US Army Corps of Engineers, San Francisco District, San Francisco, CA, United States, Kate White, US Army Corps of Engineers,, Institute for Water Resources, Washington, DC, United States and Douglas Friedman, Booz Allen Hamilton DC, Washington, DC, United States
Abstract:
Coastal navigation infrastructure may be highly vulnerable to changing climate, including increasing sea levels and altered frequency and intensity of coastal storms. Future gate operations impacted by global sea level rise will pose unique challenges, especially for structures 50 years and older. Our approach is to estimate future changes in gate operational frequency based on a bootstrapping method to forecast future water levels. A case study will be presented to determine future changes in frequency of operations over the next 100 years. A statistical model in the R programming language was developed to apply future sea level rise projections using the three sea level rise scenarios prescribed by USACE Engineer Regulation ER 1100-2-8162. Information derived from the case study will help forecast changes in operational costs caused by increased gate operations and inform timing of decisions on adaptation measures.
