Processes Influencing the Timing and Volume of Eruptions From the Youngest Supervolcano on Earth

Abstract:

In their stratigraphic records, silicic caldera volcanoes display wide ranges of eruptive styles and volumes. However, relationships between frequency and magnitude are often complex, and the forecasting of future activity is inherently problematic. Taupo volcano, New Zealand, provides a unique opportunity to investigate eruptive histories from a hyperactive, large silicic magmatic system with eruptive volumes that span 3-4 orders of magnitude, and show no clear relationships with the repose period. Taupo hosted the world’s most recent supereruption at 25.4 ka, which discharged 530 km³ of magma in the episodic 10-phase Oruanui event. Only 5 kyr later, Taupo revived, with 3 dacitic eruptions from 21.5-17 ka and 25 rhyolite eruptions from 12-1.7 ka. Here we use trends in whole rock, glass and mineral chemistry to show how the magma system reestablished following the Oruanui event, and to consider what processes influence the state of the modern volcano. The post-Oruanui dacites reflect the first products of the rebuilding silicic magma system, as most of the Oruanui mush was reconfigured or significantly modified in composition following thermal fluxing accompanying post-caldera collapse readjustment. Compositional variations within the younger rhyolites at <12 ka reflect fine-scale temporal changes in mineral phase stability, closely linked to the development, stabilization and maturation of a new silicic mush system. For the most recent eruptions, the system underwent destabilization, resulting in increased volumes of melt extraction from the silicic mush. Orthopyroxene Fe-Mg diffusion timescales indicate that the onset of rapid heating and priming of the silicic mush occurred <100 years prior to the <2.15 ka eruptions, with subsequent melt accumulation occurring in only decades. The largest post-Oruanui eruption at 232 AD culminated from elevated mafic magma supply to the silicic mush pile, rapid melt accumulation and high differential tectonic stress build up, leading to one of the largest and most violent Holocene eruptions globally. The latest eruptions of Taupo highlight the multiple controls on the timing of eruptions, and demonstrate how the magmatic system can rapidly change behavior to generate large eruptible melt bodies on timescales of direct relevance to humans and monitoring initiatives.