ACCELERATING RATES OF DISCONTINUOUS PERMAFROST THAW ASSOCIATED WITH GROUND SURFACE MORPHOLOGY AND CHANGING VEGETATION STRUCTURES DETERMINED FROM MULTI-TEMPORAL LIDAR DATA

Abstract:

Rates of permafrost thaw within the discontinuous permafrost zone are expected to accelerate with permafrost fragmentation. However quantification of drivers of permafrost change remain elusive due to the non-linearity of feedbacks in space and time. Given the extent of permafrost in Canada, there is significant interest in the mechanisms associated with land cover change as climate change and disturbance intensifies.

We quantify the variability of rates of thaw associated with structural characteristics of the land surface within a discontinuous permafrost watershed in the NWT, Canada. Results are compared to an isolated permafrost watershed in Alberta, which may exemplify the northern discontinuous landscape in ~350 years. Three airborne Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) datasets have been collected in 2008, 2011 and 2015, coincident with digital photogrammetry (2008), thermal infrared (2011) and bathymetry (2015) within both watersheds. Rates of change of land elevation associated with permafrost thaw within plateaus and peatlands are quantified using non-linear spatial regression, and compared with topographic and vegetation derivatives.

Results indicate that increasing fragmentation of discontinuous permafrost plateaus results in exponential thaw. Rates of thaw become linear with decreasing complexity. Accelerating thaw is related to substantial Picea mariana mortality (up to 45%), increased gap fraction within 1-2 m of plateau edges, and shrub succession (average growth ~0.2 m yr^—1) at the 0-2m boundary within the 7-year period. Thaw rate in parts is also complicated by understory succession within the area of local convexity between the plateau and slope edge and linear thaw pathways. Greatest rates of thaw and vegetation mortality (~30-50%) are found on plateaus with populous tremuloides. In the central boreal watershed, vegetation succession at peatland margins is associated with increased drying and changes to runoff trends over the last 40 years. Increased channelization of runoff along plateau and fen flow pathways combined with growth of short vascular vegetation may increase drying and promote rapid succession. A simple model indicates that the discontinuous permafrost zone could be similar to that of the central boreal forest in less than 300 years.