Spatially-explicit estimates of greenhouse-gas payback times for perennial cellulosic biomass production on open lands in the Lake States

Abstract:

The development of renewable energy sources is an integral step towards mitigating the carbon dioxide induced component of climate change. One important renewable source is plant biomass, comprising both food crops such as corn (Zea mays) and cellulosic biomass from short-rotation woody crops (SRWC) such as hybrid-poplar (Populus spp.) and Willow (Salix spp.). Due to their market acceptability and excellent energy balance, cellulosic feedstocks represent an abundant and if managed properly, a carbon-neutral and environmentally beneficial resource. We evaluate how site variability impacts the greenhouse-gas (GHG) benefits of SRWC plantations on lands potentially suited for bioenergy feedstock production in the Lake States (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan).

We combine high-resolution, spatially-explicit estimates of biomass, soil organic carbon and nitrous oxide emissions for SRWC plantations from the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model along with life cycle analysis results from the GREET model to determine the greenhouse-gas payback time (GPBT) or the time needed before the GHG savings due to displacement of fossil fuels exceeds the initial losses from plantation establishment. We calibrate our models using unique yield and N₂O emission data from sites across the Lake states that have been converted from pasture and hayfields to SRWC plantations. Our results show a reduction of 800,000 ha in non-agricultural open land availability for biomass production, a loss of nearly 37% (see attached figure). Overall, GPBTs range between 1 and 38 years, with the longest GPBTs occurring in the northern Lake states. Initial soil nitrate levels and site drainage potential explain more than half of the variation in GPBTs. Our results indicate a rapidly closing window of opportunity to establish a sustainable cellulosic feedstock economy in the Lake States.