GC31E-1245
Modeling the vulnerability of hydroelectricity generation under drought scenarios
Abstract:
The purpose of this study is to evaluate potential risk for hydroelectricity generation due to projected drought scenarios in the medium-term (through the year of 2030). On the basis of historical droughts and the projected drought year for 2020-2030, three drought scenarios were identified. The hydrologic model was constructed and calibrated to simulate evapotranspiration, streamflow, soil moisture, irrigation as well as reservoir storage and discharge based on various dam operation rules and targets under three drought scenarios. The model also incorporates the projected future water demand in 2030 (e.g. municipal, agricultural, electricity generation). The projected monthly reservoir discharges were used to predict the monthly hydropower generation for hydropower plants with a capacity greater than 50 MW in California River Basin for each drought scenario. The results from this study identify spatial distribution of vulnerable hydropower plants and watersheds as well as the level of potential reduction of electricity generation under various drought scenarios and provide valuable insights into future mitigation strategies and long-term planning.