What Do We Tell People to Do during Earthquake Shaking in Emerging Countries? A Multidisciplinary Approach

Abstract:

Providing advice on what to do during shaking in developing nations with high earthquake hazard and vulnerable buildings is a daunting task at the intersection of public policy and science. In areas where most buildings are masonry, earthen or concrete and are at high risk of collapse in strong shaking, advice may differ from the “Drop, Cover and Hold On” message given where residential construction is light timber (less lethal) and building codes are enforced. People in emerging countries are often unsure whether to evacuate or “run out” of the building, or to remain inside and protect oneself with Drop, Cover and Hold On, going to a marked “Safe Zone” or one of several other actions. GeoHazards International approached this problem by bringing together scientific research from multiple disciplines: seismology, epidemiology, structural engineering, risk communication, and sociology. We brought together researchers and practitioners, who applied scientific principles and professional judgment to the limited data on effectiveness of various protective actions in emerging countries.

We developed guidance on what message creators and policymakers should consider; the process for developing message content and forms; and the people to involve. A responsible message must account for not only the local tectonic environment and site conditions, but also building vulnerability, the presence of safe open space, how people are killed and injured in earthquakes, population exposure, and the beliefs, customs and social context that affect how messages are received and acted upon.

We found that local agencies should make a policy decision on the appropriate action, based on local scientific and technical information, because no one protective action will protect the majority in every context. The safest specific action varies according to where people are located, whether they will be safer where they are or by moving, and whether they can make it to the safer place before shaking becomes too strong. We plan to conduct a field test of our guidance process in Haiti, where we will help local agencies create and disseminate messages. GHI’s protective actions guidance illustrates how scientific research from multiple disciplines can combine to achieve broader impact, in this case via public safety messaging.