Dynamic Controls on Recent Increases in Northwest Greenland Coastal Precipitation

Abstract:

Arctic precipitation has been rising over recent decades, with implications for glacier mass balance, sea level rise, and thermohaline circulation via the freshening of the Arctic seas. Coastal instrumental data and proxy records in northwest (NW) Greenland indicate positive summer precipitation trends from 1952-2012 along with a long-term, significant (p < 0.05) summer warming trend. While the observed precipitation increase is likely due in part to Clausius-Clapeyron increases in vapor pressure, the dynamical mechanisms responsible for the increasing trend remain poorly understood. Here we use a 61-year record of precipitation from Thule Air Base in NW Greenland and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to identify atmospheric circulation patterns associated with enhanced precipitation in recent decades. We evaluate Thule precipitation-circulation relationships for the warm season (July-October [JASO]; 49% of annual precipitation) and cold season (December-February [DJF]; 20% of annual precipitation). Anomalously high precipitation in DJF and JASO is associated with enhanced southerly flow of warm, moist air and enhanced uplift (omega) in Northern Baffin Bay. Meridional flow in Baffin Bay is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). We observe enhanced southerly flow, uplift and Thule precipitation during negative NAO conditions in winter and to a weaker extent JASO. Based on this mechanism, the trend (p < 0.10) of declining annual NAO index values since 1981 is consistent with the rising trends in Thule annual precipitation over this interval. We find evidence that a NW Greenland ice core proxy record (2Barrel) has a diminished JASO seasonal bias compared with the coast, and thus a future, longer proxy record collected from the 2Barrel site would be well suited for capturing both summer and winter climate variability.