Modeling of the influence of humidity on H1N1 flu in China

Abstract:

In 2009, a heavy Flu hit the whole world. It was caused by the virus H1N1. The influenza first broke out in Mexico in March and the United States in April, 2009. The World Health Organization (WHO) announced that the H1N1 influenza became pandemic, alert to a warning phase of six. By the end of 2011, 181302 H1N1 cases were reported in mainland China. To improve our understanding on the impact of environmental factors on the disease transmission, we constructed an SIR (Susceptible – Infectious – Recovered) model incorporating environmental factors. It was found that the absolute humidity was a dominant environmental factor.

The study interpolated the humidity data monitored with 340 weather stations from 1951 to 2011 in mainland China.

First, the break point of the trend for the absolutely humidity was detected by the BFAST (Break For Additive Season and Trend) method. Then, the SIR model with and without the absolutely humidity incorporated in the model was built and tested. Finally, the results with the two scenarios were compared.

Results indicate that lower absolutely humidity may promote the transmission of the H1N1 cases. The calculated basic reproductive number ranges from 1.65 to 3.66 with a changing absolute humidity. This is consistent with the former study result with basic reproductive number ranging from 2.03 to 4.18. The average recovery duration was estimated to be 5.7 days. The average duration to get immunity from the influenza is 399.02 days. A risk map is also produced to illustrate the model results.