Those Pesky Humans: Emissions and the Future of AnthroGeoscience

Abstract:

Despite the “Geophysical” word in our society’s name, a large fraction of our work is devoted to characterizing how humans influence the Earth system: the discipline of anthrogeoscience.When I joined AGU in 1997, emissions for atmospheric models were treated as "just a flux." Since then, emission inventories have become recognized as core intermediaries to describe how humans, and their use of Earth’s resources, connect with Earth’s atmosphere.

What we know and don’t know about emissions often reflects what we know and don’t know about people. Emissions and atmospheric pollution become routinely observable and controllable when a society reaches a certain level of technical expertise. The least well-understood emissions of air pollutants occur before this point in societal development, or remain after controls are implemented. Yet the humans who live with these emissions may have enormous health impacts and other elevated risks. The future emission trajectories that we can choose are constrained by human capacity, capital stock, physical infrastructure, and ultimately, political will. Many have hoped to follow a low-impact trajectory, but have yet to understand and commit to the physical and societal changes required.

Understanding and choosing the future of the atmosphere will require close-coupled projections of the three-way connection between humans, the built environment, and the Earth system. Responsible stewardship will require us to integrate disciplines ranging from engineering and planning to human behavior and governance. The American Geophysical Union is key to the future of anthrogeoscience. Looking beyond its halls is imperative, as well.