GC41H
Quantifying Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models and Observations I

Thursday, 17 December 2015: 08:00-10:00
3001 (Moscone West)
Primary Conveners:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Conveners:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States, Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States and Linda O Mearns, NCAR, Boulder, CO, United States
Chairs:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
OSPA Liaisons:  Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States
08:00
GC41H-01
A new Ensemble Consistency Test for the Community Earth System Model (Invited) (70738)
Dorit Hammerling, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
08:15
GC41H-02
Robust Comparison of Climate Models with Observations Using Blended Land Air and Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (84671)
Peter Jacobs, George Mason University, Environmental Science and Policy, Fairfax, VA, United States, Zeke Hausfather, University of California, Energy & Resources Group, Berkeley, CA, United States, Kevin Cowtan, University of York, York, United Kingdom, Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Michael E Mann, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, Sonya K Miller, Penn State University, University Park, PA, United States, Byron A Steinman, University of Minnesota Duluth, Earth Sciences, Duluth, MN, United States, Robert G Way, University of Ottawa, Geography, Ottawa, ON, Canada and Martin Stolpe, ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
08:30
GC41H-03
Can large scale sea ice cover changes affect precipitation patterns over California? (73827)
Ivana Cvijanovic, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Atmospheric, Earth and Energy Division, Livermore, CA, United States
08:45
GC41H-04
Understanding the Propagation of GCM and Downscaling Uncertainty for Projecting Crop Yield: A Nationwide Analysis over India (78970)
Tarul Sharma1, Harsha Vardhan Murari1, Vittal H1, Subhankar Karmakar1, Subimal Ghosh1 and Naresh Kumar Soora2, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India, (2)Indian Agricultural Research Institute, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, New Delhi, India
09:00
GC41H-05
Towards Quantifying Robust Uncertainty Information for Climate Change Decision-making (Invited) (79319)
Chris E Forest, Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; The Pennsylvania State University,, Meteorology & Geosciences, University Park, PA, United States, Alex G Libardoni, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Meteorology, University Park, PA, United States, Chii-Yun Tsai, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, Andrei P Sokolov, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States, Erwan Monier, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Center for Global Change Science, Cambridge, MA, United States, Ryan L Sriver, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States and Klaus Keller, Carnegie Mellon University, Engineering and Public Policy, Pittsburgh, PA, United States
09:15
GC41H-06
Accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in impact assessments: The example of the BRACE study (80384)
Brian C O'Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
09:30
GC41H-07
Coupled Ethical-Epistemic Analysis of Climate Change (Invited) (73969)
Martin Vezer, Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States
09:45
GC41H-08
Exposing variation to aid climate change risk assessment (Invited) (66976)
Matthew J Smith1, Drew W Purves1, Lucas N Joppa1,2, Stephen Emmott1, Vassily Lyutsarev1, Christopher M Bishop1, Paul I Palmer3, Ben Calderhead4 and Mark C. Vanderwel5, (1)Microsoft Research, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (2)Microsoft Research, Redmond, WA, United States, (3)University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, (4)Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom, (5)University of Regina, Regina, SK, Canada
 
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