Are We Telling Decision-makers the Wrong Things - and with Too Much Confidence?

Dr. Jeffrey Richard Arnold1, Kenneth C Nowak2, Julie A Vano3, Andrew James Newman4, Naoki Mizukami5, Pablo A. Mendoza3, Bart Nijssen6, Andrew W Wood3, Ethan D Gutmann5, Martyn P Clark7 and Roy Rasmussen4, (1)U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Climate Preparedness and Resilience Programs, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)Bureau of Reclamation Research Office, Lakewood, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (6)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (7)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States