Estimating soil moisture exceedance probability from antecedent rainfall

Collin Cronkite-Ratcliff, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States, Julie Kalansky, Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego, San Diego, United States, Jonathan D Stock, USGS, Geology, Minerals, Energy, and Geophysics Science Center, Moffett Field, United States and Brian D Collins, USGS Landslide Hazards Program, Menlo Park, United States