GC13A:
Betting on Climate Change: Prediction Markets, Risk Assessment, Insurance, Scientific Consensus, and Policy Decisions Posters

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Session ID#: 12548

Session Description:
The climate is changing. Human activities are the primary cause, but many individuals reject expert scientific knowledge for political or ideological reasons. Opponents of science-informed policy cite uncertainty as a reason to delay action. Mainstream science acknowledges and objectively quantifies uncertainty, whereas opponents often use the language of certainty. Because communication is typically more persuasive when a message is conveyed with certitude, contrary voices may appear stronger than scientific voices to the public. To redress this imbalance, we must find a way to determine whether expressed opinions represent true opinions. One longstanding method is through wagering, and this session will examine the role of bets in exposing actual beliefs related to climate change and associated risk. “Betting” can take on many forms, including prediction market contracts, risk management policies, economic decisions, and insurance costs versus expected benefits. We seek abstracts that explore all these forms of betting on climate change.
Primary Convener:  Mark Boslough, University of New Mexico, Earth & Planetary Sciences, Albuquerque, United States
Conveners:  Stephan Lewandowsky, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia, James Risbey, CSIRO, Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia and James Michael Byrne, University of Lethbridge, Geography and Environment, Lethbridge, Canada
Chairs:  James Michael Byrne, University of Lethbridge, Geography and Environment, Lethbridge, Canada, James Risbey, CSIRO, Environment, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Mark Boslough, University of New Mexico, Earth & Planetary Sciences, Albuquerque, United States and Stephan Lewandowsky, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia
OSPA Liaison:  Mark Boslough, University of New Mexico, Earth & Planetary Sciences, Albuquerque, United States
Co-Organized with:
Public Affairs, and Public Affairs

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
4321 Climate impact [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4328 Risk [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Using bets to reveal people's opinions on climate change (122097)
Stephan Lewandowsky, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia, James Risbey, CSIRO Hobart, Hobart, TAS, Australia and Mark Boslough, University of New Mexico, Earth & Planetary Sciences, Albuquerque, United States
Climate Legacy Project (194955)
Peter Sinclair, Climate Denial Crock of the Week, Midland, MI, United States; Dark Snow Project, Media Director, Midland, MI, United States
In the Casino of Life: Betting on Risks and Ignoring the Consequences of Climate Change and Hazards (131771)
Deborah M Brosnan, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, United States
Detection and Attribution of Human Induced Climate Change in Offshore Wind Speeds (146291)
Sumeet Kulkarni1, M C Deo1 and Subimal Ghosh2, (1)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, India, (2)Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Department of Civil Engineering, Mumbai, India
Cointegration Methods for Detection and Attribution of Climate Change (128618)
Alemtsehai Abate Turasie, University of Witwatersrand, Wits, South Africa and David Stephenson, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Establishing a Real-Money Prediction Market for Climate on Decadal Horizons (130678)
Mark Stephen Roulston, David J Hand and David W Harding, Winton, London, United Kingdom
Energy [R]Evolution: Opportunities for Decarbonizing Canada (144582)
James Michael Byrne, University of Lethbridge, Geography and Environment, Lethbridge, Canada
Climate Golden Age or Greenhouse Gas Dark Age Legacy? (121436)
Peter Carter, Climate Emergency Institute, Washington, DC, United States
Risk Management and Adaptation Transition Mechanisms and Pathways in New York City (196627)
Hildegaard Dina Link, AquaLink Engineers, Brooklyn, United States
Who decides who has won the bet? Total and Anthropogenic Warming Indices (173295)
Myles Robert Allen, University of Oxford, Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, Karsten Haustein, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, Friederike Elly Luise Otto, University of Oxford, ECI/School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom, Anja Schmidt, University of Cambridge, Department of Chemistry, Cambridge, United Kingdom, David J Frame, NIWA National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand, Piers Forster, University of Leeds, Priestley International Centre for Climate, Leeds, LS2, United Kingdom and Damon Matthews, Concordia University, Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Montreal, QC, Canada

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