NG31A:
Stochastic Modeling in Atmosphere, Ocean, and Climate Dynamics II Posters

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Session ID#: 12615

Session Description:
Stochastic approaches are increasingly important in atmosphere, ocean, and climate models and can be applied across all levels of complexity of such models. In these approaches, critical but unresolved or poorly understood physical processes are modeled stochastically. Recent progress has been made in stochastic modeling of precipitation-, cloud- and ice-processes, as well as in hydromechanics and sub-surface hydrology. However, applications of increasing complexity require new and sophisticated numerical and computational tools and data assimilation techniques. This session aims at bringing together the mathematical, statistical, and geophysical communities. It welcomes submissions related to stochastic processes in meteorology, oceanography, and climate science, including discussion of new modeling techniques; stochastic parameterization schemes; and data-driven stochastic modeling.
Primary Convener:  Cecile Penland, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Conveners:  Paul Williams, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom, Juan M. Restrepo, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States and Fei Lu, University of California Berkeley, Mathematics, Berkeley, CA, United States
Chairs:  Cecile Penland, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Juan M. Restrepo, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Paul Williams, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • GC - Global Environmental Change
  • H - Hydrology
  • OS - Ocean Sciences
Index Terms:

3265 Stochastic processes [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3275 Uncertainty quantification [MATHEMATICAL GEOPHYSICS]
3325 Monte Carlo technique [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4468 Probability distributions, heavy and fat-tailed [NONLINEAR GEOPHYSICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science (171200)
Woosok Moon, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom and John S. Wettlaufer, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
Construction of Optimally Reduced Empirical Model by Spatially Distributed Climate Data (133744)
Andrey Gavrilov1, Dmitry Mukhin2, Evgeny Loskutov2 and Alexander Feigin2, (1)Institute of Applied Physics of RAS, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, (2)Institute of Applied Physics RAS, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
A discrete-time approach to stochastic model reduction for spatiotemporally chaotic systems (139802)
Kevin K Lin, University of Arizona, Mathematics, Tucson, AZ, United States, Fei Lu, University of California Berkeley, Mathematics, Berkeley, CA, United States and Alexandre J Chorin, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Empirical Investigation of Critical Transitions in Paleoclimate (148302)
Evgeny M Loskutov1, Dmitry Mukhin1, Andrey Gavrilov2 and Alexander Feigin1, (1)Institute of Applied Physics RAS, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia, (2)Institute of Applied Physics of RAS, Nizhny Novgorod, Russia
Stochastic modeling of Lagrangian ocean surface drifter trajectories (181710)
Adam M Sykulski1, Jonathan M Lilly2, Sofia C Olhede1 and Jeffrey J Early3, (1)University College London, Department of Statistical Science, London, United Kingdom, (2)Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, United States, (3)NorthWest Research Associates, Seattle, United States
Toward Stochastic Parameterization Based on Profiler Measurements of Vertical Velocity (161483)
Cecile Penland, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Amanda Koepke, National Institute of Standards and Technology Boulder Laboratories, Boulder, CO, United States and Christopher R Williams, University of Colorado Boulder, Smead Aerospace Engineering Science, Boulder, United States
Predictive Modeling of Risk Associated with Temperature Extremes over Continental US (143459)
Sergey Kravtsov1, Paul Roebber2 and Vytaras Brazauskas1, (1)University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, WI, United States, (2)University of Wisconsin Milwaukee, Milwaukee, United States
Forecasting Temperatures from Global to Single Station Scales Using the Stochastic Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (StocSIPS) (187403)
Lenin Del Rio Amador and Shaun Lovejoy, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada
The statistical properties of sea ice velocity fields (184535)
John S. Wettlaufer1,2 and Sahil Agarwal1, (1)Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States, (2)Nordic Institute for Theoretical Physics, Stockholm, Sweden
Data assimilation with improved prior models (167176)
Fei Lu, University of California Berkeley, Mathematics, Berkeley, CA, United States, Xuemin Tu, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS, United States and Alexandre J Chorin, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Quantification of the Uncertainties in Soil and Vegetation Parameterizations for Regional Climate Simulations in Europe (140592)
Marcus Breil, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany
The Impact of Stochastic Physics on Tropical Variability and Extremes in Global Atmospheric Models (173146)
Peter Watson, University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Susanna Corti, CNR, Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, Bologna, Italy, Paolo Davini, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique ENS, Paris, France, Jost von Hardenberg, Politecnico di Torino, Department of Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Turin, Italy, Claudio Sanchez, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom, Antje Weisheimer, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom and Tim Palmer, University of Oxford, Physics/AOPP, Oxford, United Kingdom
The inverse problem of using the information of historical data to estimate model errors is one of the science frontier research topics. In this study, we investigate such a problem using the classic Lorenz (1963) equation as a prediction model. (125763)
Shiquan Wan and Wenping He, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China
A Theory for the Emergence of Coherent Structures in a Quasi-Geostrophic Two Layer Model (130524)
Nikolaos Bakas, University of Ioannina, Department of Physics, Ioannina, Greece and Petros J Ioannou, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Department of Physics, Athens, Greece
Non-Gaussian Multi-resolution Modeling of Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Processes (144436)
Minjie Fan1, Debashis Paul1, Thomas C.M. Lee1 and Tomoko Matsuo2, (1)University of California Davis, Statistics, Davis, CA, United States, (2)University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, United States
NOISE-INDUCED CYCLE SUPPRESSION: A NEW MECHANISM FOR THE LATE QUARTENARY CLIMATE RESPONSE AT 100 KYR. (135999)
Ivan L'Heureux, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada
The Sensitivity of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Dynamical Framework in an Ocean General Circulation Model (138417)
Xiaolan Li, Insititute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China and Yongqiang Yu, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China

See more of: Nonlinear Geophysics