S21A:
Operational Earthquake Forecasting: Scientific Advances, Validation and Implementation, Communication and Uptake I Posters

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Session ID#: 13049

Session Description:
Earthquakes seldom come alone; they often trigger additional earthquakes that exacerbate existing crises or indeed initiate a disaster. The recent M7 April 15, 2016, Kumamoto, Japan earthquake occurred mere days after two earlier M6 temblors, serving as yet another dramatic example of a so-called aftershock that proved to be more damaging than the initial mainshock. This session focuses on recent progress in operational earthquake forecasting (OEF), which involves the generation and timely dissemination of authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazard, with the purpose of helping communities prepare for earthquakes. We invite contributions spanning the range of challenges facing OEF. Topics may include: scientific advances in physical and statistical modelling of earthquake triggering, clustering and cascading; validation and evaluation of forecast skill; operationalization and implementation in real-time, including data access issues and uncertainties; best practices for communication; and uptake from existing and potential users of operational forecasts.
Primary Convener:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom
Conveners:  Nicholas van der Elst, U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States, Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand and Warner Marzocchi, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
Chairs:  Matt Gerstenberger, GNS Science, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, Nicholas van der Elst, U.S. Geological Survey, Earthquake Science Center, Pasadena, United States and Warner Marzocchi, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
OSPA Liaison:  Maximilian J Werner, University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom

Cross-Listed:
  • G - Geodesy
  • NH - Natural Hazards
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

4334 Disaster risk communication [NATURAL HAZARDS]
6309 Decision making under uncertainty [POLICY SCIENCES]
7212 Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology [SEISMOLOGY]
7223 Earthquake interaction, forecasting, and prediction [SEISMOLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence, A Series of Cross-fault and In-fault Triggering Events (197025)
Qibin Shi1, Shengji Wei1, Eric Ostrom Lindsey2, Lujia Feng1, Teng Wang3, Yu Wang4, Meng Chen4 and Emma Hill5, (1)Earth Observatory of Singapore, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore, (2)Nanyang Technological University, Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, (3)Southern Methodist University, Dallas, TX, United States, (4)Earth Observatory of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore, (5)Asian School of the Environment, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Singapore
The Stress Transfer and Seismic Interaction Revealed by the Aftershocks of the 2011 Van Earthquake (173465)
Ali Ozgun Konca, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul, Turkey, Sezim ezgi Işık, Bogazici University, Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Istanbul, Turkey and Hayrullah Karabulut, Kandilli Observatory, Istanbul, Turkey
Numerical test of a forecasting procedure for plate boundary earthquakes: a case study of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake along the Japan Trench (168362)
Ryoko Nakata1, Mamoru Hyodo2 and Takane Hori1, (1)Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, Japan, (2)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Kanagawa, Japan
Theoretical Estimation of the Death Toll caused by collapsed buildings in different regions of Taiwan. (153864)
Wen-Yen Chang and Kuei-Pao Chen, National Dong Hwa University, Eastern Taiwan Earthquake Research Center, Hualien County, Taiwan
Recent Achievements of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (161361)
Masha Liukis1, Maximilian J Werner2, Danijel Schorlemmer3, John Yu4, Philip J Maechling1, David D Jackson5, David Alan Rhoades6, Jeremy D Zechar7, Warner Marzocchi8 and Thomas H Jordan1, (1)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (2)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany, (4)University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (5)University of California Los Angeles, Earth, Planetary, and Space Science, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (6)GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, (7)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (8)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
Real-time Mainshock Forecast by Statistical Discrimination of Foreshock Clusters (166012)
Shunichi Nomura, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan and Yosihiko Ogata, Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Tokyo, Japan
CSEP Evaluations of 24-Hour Earthquake Forecasting Models for California: New Results and Ensemble Models (190727)
Maximilian J Werner1, Masha Liukis2, Warner Marzocchi3, David Alan Rhoades4, Matteo Taroni3, Jeremy D Zechar5 and Thomas H Jordan2, (1)University of Bristol, School of Earth Sciences and Cabot Institute, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, (2)Southern California Earthquake Center, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (3)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (4)GNS Science-Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences Ltd, Lower Hutt, New Zealand, (5)ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Assessment of Pre-earthquake Land Surface Temperatures in 20 Case Studies Worldwide (124767)
Efthymia Pavlidou, University of Twente, Enschede, Netherlands, Mark van der Meijde, University of Twente, Applied Earth Science, Enschede, Netherlands, Harald van der Werff, University of Twente, Earth Systems Analysis, Enschede, 7500, Netherlands and Christoph Hecker, University of Twente, Earth Systems Analysis, Enschede, Netherlands
Analysis of the Seismicity Preceding Large Earthquakes (131295)
Angela Stallone and Warner Marzocchi, National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy
Nowcasting: A New Approach to the Statistics of Aftershocks (131433)
Alexis Giguere, University of California Davis, Davis, CA, United States, John B Rundle, University of California Davis, Department of Physics, Davis, CA, United States and Donald L Turcotte, University of California Davis, Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Davis, CA, United States
Correlation between Strain Rate and Seismicity and Its Implication for Earthquake Rupture Potential in California and Nevada (186849)
Yuehua Zeng, USGS Geologic Hazards Science Center, Golden, United States, Mark David Petersen, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO, United States and Zheng-Kang Shen, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States

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