NH53B:
New Methods to Forecast Volcanic Eruptions II Posters

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Session ID#: 13052

Session Description:
A key goal in volcanology is to develop early warning systems to forecast the type and style of forthcoming volcanic eruptions. This requires unravelling the physicochemical signals associated with the migration of magma, the accumulation of gases in volcano plumbing systems, and the mineralogic sealing of volcanic conduits. Despite significant advances made during the last decades, an optimal forecasting method remains elusive, as revealed, for example, by the catastrophic recent eruption of Ontake volcano (Japan). In this session, we seek contributions that cover field, experimental, numerical, and/or theoretical studies that aim to improve the forecasting of volcanic events from a broad range of monitoring approaches, including gas, seismic, deformation, gravity, and muon tomography. We encourage contributions that challenge established paradigms and that provide new methods based upon an understanding of the mechanisms involved in volcanic eruptions.
Primary Convener:  Társilo Girona, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States
Conveners:  Corentin Caudron, University of Cambridge, Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom, Marie Edmonds, University of Cambridge, Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Paul Segall, Stanford University, Geophysics, Stanford, CA, United States
Chairs:  Társilo Girona, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States, Marie Edmonds, University of Cambridge, Department of Earth Sciences, Cambridge, United Kingdom and Paul Segall, Stanford University, Geophysics, Stanford, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Társilo Girona, Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • V - Volcanology, Geochemistry and Petrology
Index Terms:

4316 Physical modeling [NATURAL HAZARDS]
4341 Early warning systems [NATURAL HAZARDS]
8419 Volcano monitoring [VOLCANOLOGY]
8488 Volcanic hazards and risks [VOLCANOLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Microscopic Observation of Tremor-Like Excitations during Dynamic Loading of Trapped Liquids  (142822)
Rene C St. Julien1, Hoagy O. OGhaffari, PhD2, Christopher N Borjas1 and W. Ashley Griffith1, (1)University of Texas at Arlington, Arlington, TX, United States, (2)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, EAPS, Cambridge, MA, United States
Seismic and experimental insights into relative velocity changes at Volcán de Colima in 1998 (128171)
Oliver D Lamb1, Silvio De Angelis2, Richard Wall2, Nick R Varley3, Gabriel Angel Reyes Dávila4, Raul Arámbula-Mendoza4, Adrian J Hornby2, Jackie E Kendrick2 and Yan Lavallée2, (1)University of Liverpool, Liverpool, L69, United Kingdom, (2)University of Liverpool, Liverpool, United Kingdom, (3)Universidad de Colima, Facultad de Ciencias, Colima, Mexico, (4)Univ Colima, Colima, Mexico
Machine Learning Method for Pattern Recognition in Volcano Seismic Spectra (151887)
Valentina Radic1, Kathi Unglert1 and Mark Jellinek2, (1)University of British Columbia, Department of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Vancouver, BC, Canada, (2)University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada
Single station monitoring of volcanoes using seismic ambient noise (165188)
Raphael SM De Plaen1, Thomas Lecocq2, Corentin Caudron3, Valerie Ferrazzini4 and Olivier Francis1, (1)University of Luxembourg, Luxembourg, Luxembourg, (2)Observatoire Royal de Belgique, Brussel, Belgium, (3)Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium, (4)Université de Paris, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris (IPGP), UMR 7154, Paris, France
Relationship between eruption plume heights and seismic source amplitudes of eruption tremors and explosion events (140164)
Azusa Mori and Hiroyuki Kumagai, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan
Plume Magnitude and Thermal Monitoring as Tools in Eruption Forecasting (150246)
Anna K Worden, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States, Jonathan Dehn, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States and Peter W Webley, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Center for Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration (ACUASI), Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Can we develop an effective early warning system for volcanic eruptions using ‘off the shelf’ webcams and low-light cameras? (184307)
Martin Harrild1, Peter W Webley2 and Jonathan Dehn1, (1)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Alaska Center for Unmanned Aircraft Systems Integration (ACUASI), Geophysical Institute, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Temporal Changes of Vp/Vs Ratios during Inter-eruption Periods of Redoubt Volcano, Alaska (143145)
Seongjun Park1, Helena Buurman2 and Tae-Kyung Hong1, (1)Yonsei University, Earth System Sciences, Seoul, South Korea, (2)University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Volcano Monitoring using Multiple Remote Data Sources (188776)
Kevin A Reath, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, United States and Matthew E Pritchard, Cornell University, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States
A Probabilistic Approach for Real-Time Volcano Surveillance (126279)
Flavio Cannavo1, Andrea Cannata2,3, Carmelo Cassisi3, Giuseppe Di Grazia4, Padre Maronno3, Placido Montalto3, Michele Prestifilippo3, Eugenio Privitera3, Salvatore Gambino3 and Mauro Coltelli3, (1)National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Rome, Italy, (2)University of Perugia, Dipartimento di Fisica e Geologia, Perugia, Italy, (3)INGV National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy, (4)Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Osservatorio Etneo, Catania, Italy
The Eruption Forecasting Information System: Volcanic Eruption Forecasting Using Databases (123072)
Sarah E Ogburn1, Christopher Harpel2, Jeremy D Pesicek1 and John Wellik3, (1)USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, WA, United States, (2)Nanyang Tech. University, Brush Prairie, United States, (3)USGS Volcano Disaster Assistance Program, Anchorage, United States
Development of Air Quality Impact Assessment Method of Potential Volcanic Hazard near the Korean Peninsula (148625)
Yoo Jung Kim1, Doyoon Kim2, Jae Eun Park3, Ki-Ho Hong4 and Young Sunwoo4, (1)Konkuk University, Social Eco-Tech Institute, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (2)Konkuk University, Environmental Engineering, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (3)National Disaster Management Research Institute, Disaster Scientific Investigation Division, Ulsan, Korea, Republic of (South), (4)Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, College of Engineering, Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea
Increasing of Gas Bubbling at Wariishi Flowing Spring, Central Japan, before and after the 2014 Ontake Volcano Eruption (129911)
Fumiaki Kimata1, S. Tasaka2 and Y. Asai2, (1)Tono Research Institute of Earthquake Science, Mizunami, Japan, (2)ADEP, Mizunami, Japan
Organizational preparedness for and management of volcanic crises at Kīlauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes, Hawaii (197561)
Ashleigh Reeves1, Michael Keith Lindell2, Chris E. Gregg1, Carla Prater3, T. Andrew Joyner1 and Sara Eggert4, (1)East Tennessee State University, Department of Geosciences, Johnson City, TN, United States, (2)Boise State University, Geosciences, Boise, United States, (3)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (4)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States

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