GC23E:
Scenario Approaches to Understand Arctic Futures Posters

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Session ID#: 13059

Session Description:
Consideration of alternative scenarios for the medium-long term future of the Arctic region can be a powerful approach to synthesis of disparate trends in support of enhanced understanding of the possibilities.  Scenario approaches use a variety of scales of analysis to understand the social-ecological systems of a region (or sub-regions), bringing together geoscience, biological science, and interactions of these natural systems with regional and global populations.

This session will feature presentations from pioneering research groups involved in Arctic scenario analysis. The audience will learn how these different approaches were developed and structured, and what insights they have produced about possible and likely Arctic futures.

Arctic scenarios development is often informed by inputs from global and regional models of climate, atmosphere, marine, and terrestrial change.  As a focus, session participants will also be asked to consider how such physical models might be improved to better inform and support more robust scenarios.

Primary Convener:  Robert H Rich, ARCUS, Washington, DC, United States
Conveners:  Helen V Wiggins, Arctic Research Consortium of the U.S. (ARCUS), Fairbanks, United States, Brit Myers, ScienceBetter Consulting, Cambridge, United States and Caspar M. Ammann, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Chairs:  Robert H Rich, ARCUS, Washington, DC, United States and Caspar M. Ammann, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Brit Myers, ScienceBetter Consulting, Cambridge, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • C - Cryosphere
  • PA - Public Affairs
Index Terms:

0468 Natural hazards [BIOGEOSCIENCES]
1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
9315 Arctic region [GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Scenarios in Social-Ecological Systems: Co-Producing Futures in Arctic Alaska (139648)
Amy Lauren Lovecraft, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Department of Political Science, Fairbanks, AK, United States and Hajo Eicken, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Institute of Marine Science, Fairbanks, AK, United States
With Climate Change Expanding Trade Routes in the Arctic and the Resultant Pursuit of Resources, it is Crucial that the Eight Arctic Nations Find Paths Towards Sustainability and Peace in the Region. Traditional Arctic Games are an Essential Scenario that Provide an Important Scale for Analysis Aimed at Medium-long term Sustainability in the Arctic. (127558)
John Richard Kilbourne, Grand Valley State University, Allendale, MI, United States
Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs (157981)
John F Payne, North Slope Science Initiative, Anchorage, AK, United States
Coordinated scenarios for a transdisciplinary assessment of the scientific understanding of Arctic environmental change (191967)
Caspar M. Ammann, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States and Marika M Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, United States

See more of: Global Environmental Change