GC21E:
Impacts and Mitigation for 1.5°C Warming and Other Warming Targets I Posters

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Session ID#: 13326

Session Description:
With the COP21 agreements calling for keeping warming “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C” the scientific community has started to explore both impact consequences and mitigation requirements of such stringent goals. This session invites contributions that characterize both the benefits of this level of mitigation along assessments of costs and feasibility.  We seek either analyses that explicitly compare the consequences of specific goals (1.5°C vs 2°C, and higher) or analyses that successfully draw a robust relation between arbitrary levels of warming and impacts, i.e., not necessarily conceived for these targets but nevertheless informative in assessing their relative costs and potential climate risks.
Primary Convener:  Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Convener:  Ben Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Chairs:  Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Ben Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
6304 Benefit-cost analysis [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Global Projections of River Flood Risk at Specific Warming Levels (134773)
Lorenzo Alfieri1, Luc Feyen2, Francesco Dottori1, Gustavo Naumann2, Alessandra Bianchi2, A.P.J. De Roo2, Bisselink Bernard2, Feyera A Hirpa2 and Peter Salamon2, (1)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra Vey, Italy, (2)European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
Climate-change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources at different global warming levels (140390)
Akemi Tanaka1, Kiyoshi Takahashi2, Hideo Shiogama3, Naota Hanasaki3, Yoshimitsu Masaki4, Akihiko Ito4, Hibiki Noda4, Yasuaki Hijioka5 and Seita Emori3, (1)NARO National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center, Sapporo, Japan, (2)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, Tsukuba, Japan, (3)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, (4)NIES National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan, (5)National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Climate Change Adaptation, Tsukuba, Japan
Is the zero emission requirement aligned with 2.0°C and 1.5°C stabilization targets? (144663)
Katsumasa Tanaka, LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette Cedex, France and Brian C O'Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Paris INDCs: will they achieve the goal of the Paris Climate Agreement? (150434)
Walter Robert Tribett1, Ross J Salawitch2, Austin Patrick Hope1, Brian Francis Bennett1 and Timothy P Canty3, (1)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, MD, United States, (2)University of Maryland College Park, Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, College Park, United States, (3)University of Maryland, College Park, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, College Park, United States
High resolution climate model simulations of stabilized 1.5 and 2 degree warming scenarios. (150883)
Michael F Wehner1, Dáithí A Stone1, Jeffrey N Johnson1, Burlen Loring2, Hari Krishnan1 and Travis Allen O'Brien1, (1)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (2)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Computational Research Division, Berkeley, United States
From Paris to Iowa and Back: Global Temperature Targets, Agricultural Impacts, and Producer Response (151115)
Christopher Anderson, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States, Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University, Climate Center, Lubbock, TX, United States and Adam J Terando, US Geological Survey, Southeast Climate Adaptation Science Center, Raleigh, NC, United States
Assessing the impacts of 1.5°C of global warming – The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) approach (157126)
Fang Zhao1, Katja Frieler2, Lila Warszawski1, Stefan Lange1, Jacob Schewe1, Christopher Reyer1, Sebastian Ostberg1, Franziska Piontek1, Richard Arthur Betts3, Eleanor J Burke4, Philippe Ciais5, Delphine Deryng6, Kristie L Ebi7, Kerry Emanuel8, Joshua Wright Elliott9, Eric D Galbraith10, Simon Newland Gosling11, Thomas Hickler12, Jochen Hinkel13, Chris Jones14, Valentina Krysanova1, Hermann Lotze-Campen1, Ioanna Mouratiadou1, Alexander Popp1, Hanqin Tian15, Derek Tittensor16, Robert Vautard5, Michelle TH van Vliet17, Tyler Eddy16, Fred Hattermann1, Veronika Huber1, Matthias Mengel18, Miodrag Stevanovic1, Thonicke Kirsten19, Hannes Mueller Schmied20, Sébastien Denvil21, Kate Halladay22, Tatsuo Suzuki23 and Heike K. Lotze24, (1)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Research Department Transformation Pathways, Potsdam, Germany, (3)University of Exeter, Global Systems Institute, Exeter, United Kingdom, (4)Met Office Hadley Centre, Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Team, Exeter, United Kingdom, (5)LSCE Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France, (6)University of East Anglia, Climatic Research Unit, Norwich, United Kingdom, (7)University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States, (8)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, (9)University of Chicago, Department of Computer Science, Chicago, IL, United States, (10)McGill University, Earth and Planetary Sciences, Montreal, QC, Canada, (11)University of Nottingham, School of Geography, Nottingham, United Kingdom, (12)Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Frankfurt/Main, Germany, (13)Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany, (14)Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and Services, Exeter, United Kingdom, (15)Auburn University, Auburn, United States, (16)Dalhousie University, Department of Biology, Halifax, NS, Canada, (17)Utrecht University, Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht, Netherlands, (18)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany, (19)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, RD1 - Earth System Analysis, Potsdam, Germany, (20)Goethe University Frankfurt, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Institute of Physical Geography, Frankfurt am Main, Germany, (21)IPSL, Paris, France, (22)Met Office Hadley center for Climate Change, Exeter, United Kingdom, (23)JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Yokohama, Japan, (24)Dalhousie University, Biology Department, Halifax, NS, Canada
Extreme heatwaves in Europe and Africa and their impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming (158251)
Simone Russo, Joint Research Center Ispra, Ispra, Italy; European Commission Joint Research Centre, I.1 – Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluation Unit, Ispra Vey, Italy and Jana Sillmann, Universtiy of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways (162523)
Roman Julius Hennig1, Johannes Friedrich1, Helen Mountford1, Juan Carlos Altamirano1, Mengpin Ge2 and Taryn Fransen1, (1)World Resources Institute, Washington D.C., DC, United States, (2)World Resources Institute, Washington D.C., United States
Constraints on global temperature target overshoot (168464)
Katharine Ricke, University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA, United States, Richard Millar, University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom and Douglas G MacMartin, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Global Coastal Exposure due to Sea-level Rise beyond Tipping Points with Multiple Warming Pathways (171181)
Ryunosuke Tawatari1, Yoshihiko Iseri2, Masashi Kiguchi3 and Shinjiro Kanae2, (1)Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan, (2)Tokyo Institute of Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tokyo, Japan, (3)Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ku, Japan
Differential Climate Impacts from a 0.5oC Increase in Global Mean Temperature (181128)
Scott J Weaver, Environmental Defense Fund DC, Washington, DC, United States
Regional amplification of extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks (181840)
Martha Vogel, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, Rene Orth, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland and Sonia I Seneviratne, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California (190601)
Daniel R Cayan1, Guido Franco2 and David W Pierce1, (1)University of California San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, United States, (2)California Energy Commission, Research Division, Sacramento, CA, United States
Assessment of the Air Quality Improvement Potentials for Seoul Metropolitan Area using GAINS-Korea (194502)
Younha Kim1, Jung-Hun Woo2, Young-Hwan Ahn3, Jinsu Kim1, Jinseok KIM4, Chanjong Bu5, Yungu Lee1, Ki-Chul Choi5, Markus Amann6 and Sang-Kyun Kim7, (1)Konkuk University, Seoul, South Korea, (2)Konkuk University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Department of Technology Fusion Engineering, Seoul, South Korea, (3)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria, Wien, Austria, (4)Konkuk University, Division of Interdisciplinary Studies, Seoul, South Korea, (5)Konkuk University, Dept. of Advanced Technology Fusion, Seoul, Korea, Republic of (South), (6)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (7)NIER, Climate & Air Quality Research Department Global Environment Research Division, Incheon, Korea, Republic of (South)
On the emergence of unusual, unfamiliar and unknown climates (196988)
Dave Frame1, Manoj Joshi2, Ed Hawkins3, Luke James Harrington1 and Luke James Harrington1, (1)Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, (2)University of East Anglia, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich, United Kingdom, (3)University of Reading, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom

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