GC13F:
Quantitative Methods for Addressing Model Uncertainties in Climate and Hydrology Projections and Prioritizing Measurement Needs II Posters

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Session ID#: 13497

Session Description:
The actionable climate change science studies, including environmental modeling, impacts assessment, mitigation and adaptation plan for food-water-energy sectors depend upon reliable hydrological projections at regional scales. Hydrological projections over various temporal and spatial scales are subject to uncertainties from various sources including global climate models, emission scenarios, downscaling methodology, hydrological modeling, parameter estimation, and internal variability in the climate system. To navigate the cloud of uncertainties, it is also important to understand the robustness in hydrological projections based on physical principles, e.g., intensification of hydrological cycle under global warming, and the ‘limits’ concept in hydrology, e.g., the Budyko Framework. We solicit research topics from climate and hydrologic communities that may include but not limited to: emerging issues in hydroclimatic variability and changes, uncertainty quantification, theoretical and modeling framework to reduce uncertainties, uncertainty analysis for making decisions and forming policies, and innovative data assimilation and sensitivity analysis techniques for incorporating uncertainty.
Primary Convener:  Kimberly C Brumble, University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada
Conveners:  Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States, Joseph R Kasprzyk, University of Colorado Boulder, Civil Environmental & Architectural Engineering, Boulder, United States and Randall Friedl, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Chairs:  Kimberly C Brumble, University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada and Randall Friedl, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States
Co-Organized with:
Natural Hazards, Atmospheric Sciences, Hydrology, and Natural Hazards

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • NH - Natural Hazards

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1847 Modeling [HYDROLOGY]
1952 Modeling [INFORMATICS]
3355 Regional modeling [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

An Independent Component Analysis Based Method for Correcting Biases in Spatial Correlation of Climate Simulations (132445)
Jannatun Nahar1, Ashish Sharma1 and Fiona Johnson2, (1)University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, (2)University of New South Wales, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Contribution of General Circulation Models and climate change scenarios to the uncertainty in Reservoir Operation. The case of the Limarí Basin reservoir, Chile. (145843)
Cristian Chadwick1, Amin A Elshorbagy2, Jorge A Gironas3 and Sebastian Vicuna3, (1)Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile, (2)University of Saskatchewan, Department of Civil, Geological, and Environmental Engineering, Saskatoon, SK, Canada, (3)Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, Santiago, Chile
The Inferential Structure of Actionable Science in Climatological and Hydrological Co-Productions (152388)
Kimberly C Brumble, University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada
Advancing Earth System Science using Quantified Objectives: An Overview of the NRC Recommended Value Framework (190710)
Randall Friedl, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Detection of changes in indicators of hydrologic alterations under CMIP5 projections from a model chain with a multi-model approach (169544)
Hyung-Il Eum, APEC Climate Center, Busan, Korea, Republic of (South)
Uncertainty Assessment of the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset (170440)
Weile Wang1, Ramakrishna R Nemani2, Andrew Michaelis3, Hirofumi Hashimoto3, Jennifer L Dungan4, Bridget L Thrasher5, Keith W Dixon6 and Edwin P Maurer7, (1)NASA/AMES Research Center, Moffett Field, United States, (2)NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA, United States, (3)California State University Monterey Bay, Seaside, CA, United States, (4)NASA Ames Research Center (retired), Moffett Field, United States, (5)Argos Analytics, Washington, DC, United States, (6)NOAA, Princeton, United States, (7)Santa Clara University, Civil, Environmental, and Sustainable Engineering Department, Santa Clara, United States
A Step towards a Sharable Community Knowledge Base for WRF Settings -Developing a WRF Setting Methodology based on a case study in a Torrential Rainfall Event (178346)
Qi CHU1,2, Zongxue Xu1, Lu Zhuo3 and Dawei Han4, (1)BNU Beijing Normal University, College of Water Sciences, Beijing, China, (2)University of Bristol, Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol, United Kingdom, (3)University of Bristol, School of Geographical Sciences, Bristol, United Kingdom, (4)University of Bristol, Department of Civil Engineering, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom
A Program for Robustness Analysis: overcoming uncertainty in decision-making (183938)
Archie Lee Fields III, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Qunatifying the relative uncertainties of climate change and water demand projections to understand risk and increase resilience in water supply planning (189368)
Seungwoo Jason Chang1, Wendy D Graham1 and Jeffrey S Geurink2, (1)University of Florida, Ft Walton Beach, FL, United States, (2)Tampa Bay Water, Dunedin, United States

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