H43C:
Weather and Climate Ensembles for Hydrologic Forecasting and Scenario Analysis II Posters

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Session ID#: 14129

Session Description:
Ensemble methods can improve hydrological predictions at subdaily to multi-decadal time scales, including flood and drought forecasting, hydropower and agricultural applications, and climate impact assessments. Methods include ensemble numerical weather prediction, stochastic and dynamic weather generators, and model perturbation and error characterization. This session aims to showcase advances in ensemble methods including simulation of spatially correlated meteorological forcings, downscaling of multi-model climate projections, and ensemble modeling across spatial and temporal scales. We also seek contributions on the statistical characterization of relevant phenomena such as storm tracks and atmospheric water vapor transport that can help to drive future progress. This session also seeks contributions in ensemble post-processing techniques and uncertainty quantification. Groups that use such approaches in risk analysis, flood and drought forecasting, urban hydrology, agriculture, resource management, ecology, and water quality applications are invited, particularly those focusing on complex systems and high-impact water-and-society interactions.
Primary Convener:  Ricardo Mantilla, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
Conveners:  Daniel B Wright, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States and Firas Saleh, Davidson Laboratory, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Ocean Engineering, Hoboken, NJ, United States
Chairs:  Firas Saleh, Davidson Laboratory, Department of Civil, Environmental, and Ocean Engineering, Hoboken, NJ, United States, Daniel B Wright, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Madison, United States and Ricardo Mantilla, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Ricardo Mantilla, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1816 Estimation and forecasting [HYDROLOGY]
1817 Extreme events [HYDROLOGY]
1821 Floods [HYDROLOGY]
1873 Uncertainty assessment [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Objective Use of Climate Indices to Inform Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin -- An Initial Review (119567)
Erik Pytlak1, Ann McManamon2, Stephen P Hughes3, Richard A Van Der Zweep3, Phillip Butcher3, Chris Karafotias3, Joost Beckers4 and Edwin Welles5, (1)Bonneville Power Administration, Weather and Streamflow Forecasting, Portland, OR, United States, (2)Bonneville Power Administration, Weather and Streamflow Forecasting, Portland, United States, (3)Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR, United States, (4)Deltares, Delft, Netherlands, (5)Deltares USA, Silver Spring, United States
Spatial-temporal reproducibility assessment of global seasonal forecasting system version 5 model for Dam Inflow forecasting (125717)
Soojin Moon, Ae-sook Suh and Soohee Han, Korea Water Resources Corporation, Hydrometeorological Cooperation Center, Daejeon, Korea, Republic of (South)
Post-processing Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts via Integrating Climate Indices and the Analog Approach (131654)
Yuqiong Liu1, Yu Zhang2, Andrew W Wood3, Hak Su Lee1,4, Limin Wu2,5 and John C Schaake6, (1)NOAA/NWS/OWP, Silver Spring, United States, (2)NOAA/NWS/OWP, Silver Spring, MD, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)LEN Technologies, Oak Hill, United States, (5)Lynker Technologis, Leesburg, VA, United States, (6)Retired, Washington, DC, United States
Evaluating and improving the forecast skill of NMME dataset over the CONUS; introducing an effective post-processing approach (131931)
Sepideh Khajehei, Ali Ahmadalipour and Hamid Moradkhani, Portland State University, Portland, OR, United States
A new method of multi model ensemble to improve the simulation of the geographic distribution of Köppen–Geiger climate classification (134690)
Leibin Wang1, Yafei Li1, Cai Qixiang2, Shuang Wu II2 and FangJing Jing Fang1, (1)BNU Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, (2)Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
The Southern Utah Flash Floods of 14 September 2015 and the Hydroclimatology of Extreme Floods in the Southwestern US (149428)
James A Smith1, Mary Lynn Baeck2, Julia Signell1, Long Yang3 and Efrat Morin4, (1)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Princeton University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (3)Nanjing University, Nanjing, China, (4)The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, The Fredy and Nadine Herrmann Institute of Earth Sciences, Jerusalem, Israel
Copula Based Post-processing Method for Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast (156789)
Wentao Li, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China and Qingyun Duan, Hohai University, Nanjing, China
Evaluation of Precipitation Ensemble Forecasts at Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of NCEP (158682)
Yan Luo, NOAA/NCEP/EMC/IMSG, College Park, MD, United States; IMSG @ NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States and Yuejian Zhu, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
A Novel Method for Simulating Stochastic Simulations of Daily Precipitation and Air Temperature at Multiple Sites (162273)
Kimberly Smith1, Courtenay Strong2 and Firas Rassoul-Agha1, (1)University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, United States, (2)University of Utah, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Salt Lake City, United States
Theory and Practice of Phase-aware Ensemble Forecasting (163055)
Justin A Schulte, Stevens Institute of Technology, Union City, NJ, United States and Nickitas Georgas, Stevens Institute of Technology, Davidson Laboratory, Deptartment of Civil, Environmental and Ocean Engineering, Union City, NJ, United States
A statistical approach to generating perturbed physics ensemble forecasts using the WRF model (172105)
Chen wei Shen, BNU Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China, Qingyun Duan, Hohai University, Nanjing, China and Chen Wang, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
Seasonal Ensemble Forecasting: Using Bayesian Model Averaging and Constrained Fourier Smoothing (177865)
Sankalp Lahari, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India, Manish Sahu, Banaras Hindu University, Indian Institute of Technology, Varanasi, India and Rakesh Khosa, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Department of Civil Engineering, New Delhi, India
Coupling Fluvial and Oceanic Drivers in Flooding Forecasts for San Francisco Bay (189528)
Liv Herdman, USGS New York Water Science Center, Coram, NY, United States, Jungho Kim, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, CO, United States, Robert Cifelli, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, Patrick Barnard, USGS California Water Science Center San Diego, Santa Cruz, United States, Li H Erikson, USGS Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA, United States, Lynn E Johnson, NOAA Boulder, PSD2, Boulder, CO, United States and V Chandrasekar, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Fort Collins, United States
Spatially and Physically Consistent Weather Estimation using Bias-Corrected Climate Simulations and Reanalysis Analogs (194355)
Jonathan Winter1, Gabriela Bucini2, Patrick J Clemins3 and Brian Beckage2, (1)Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH, United States, (2)University of Vermont, Burlington, VT, United States, (3)University of Vermont, Department of Computer Science, Burlington, VT, United States
Storm Tracking in the Southwest using 2D Lightning Fields (197131)
Julia Signell1, James A Smith1 and Mary Lynn Baeck2, (1)Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Princeton University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States
Improved Method for Multi-GCM Ensemble Averaging of Downscaled CMIP5 Precipitation for Capturing the Observed Precipitation Series (199274)
Himanshu Arora and Chandra Shekhar Prasad Ojha, M.B.M. Engineering College, Jai Narain Vyas University, Jodhpur, India, Civil Engineering, Jodhpur, India

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