A41G:
Stochastic and Coupled Modeling for Seamless Earth System Prediction Capabilities II Posters
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Session ID#: 14824
Session Description:
Forecasting the state of the atmosphere-ocean-land system from weather to climate timescales is one of the most important aspects of earth system science. One of the challenges in earth system forecasting is to provide accurate probabilistic predictions. This includes the prediction of forecast uncertainty, which increases the forecast value for decision making and risk management. Stochastic parameterizations have been successfully used for representing model uncertainty, improving ensemble predictions, and reducing errors in statistical moments including longstanding climate biases. The purpose of this session is to promote and discuss stochastic methods that address the challenges of uncertainty prediction in earth system forecasting. We encourage contributions aimed at diagnosing, characterizing, and propagating model uncertainty, and welcome ideas on designing stochastic schemes for assimilation and earth system forecasting. The session includes physical, rigorous, reduced-order, and/or empirical stochastic modeling and probabilistic methods for resolved and under-resolved processes in atmospheric, land-surface, ocean, and/or sea-ice models.
Primary Convener: Falko Judt, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Conveners: Jessie C Carman, NOAA Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States, David McCarren, Oceanographer of the Navy, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Aneesh Subramanian, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Chairs: Jessie C Carman, NOAA Washington DC, Washington, DC, United States and Falko Judt, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
OSPA Liaison: Falko Judt, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Cross-Listed:
Abstracts Submitted to this Session:
E. Joseph Metzger1, Neil P Barton2, Ole Martin Smedstad3, Benjamin C Ruston4, Alan J Wallcraft5, Timothy R Whitcomb4, James A Ridout4, Deborah S Franklin3, Luis Zamudio6, Pamela G Posey5, Carolyn A. Reynolds7 and Michael Phelps8, (1)Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Sciences Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (2)Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, United States, (3)Vencore Services and Solutions, Inc, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (4)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States, (5)Naval Research Laboratory, Oceanography, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (6)Florida State University, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL, United States, (7)U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, United States, (8)Jacobs Technology Inc., Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
Laura Clemente-Harding1,2, Guido Cervone3, Luca Delle Monache4, Sue Ellen Haupt1,4 and Stefano Alessandrini5, (1)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, University Park, PA, United States, (2)US Army Corps of Engineers Geospatial Research Laboratory, Alexandria, VA, United States, (3)Pennsylvania State University Main Campus, Department of Geography and Institute for Computational and Data Sciences, University Park, PA, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Research Applications Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
Seung-Bu Park, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States and Pierre Gentine, Columbia University, Earth Institute, New York, United States
Brandon W Kerns and Shuyi S Chen, University of Washington, Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States
Annarita Mariotti, NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, United States, Daniel Barrie, NOAA, Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States, Heather M Archambault, NOAA Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, MD, United States and Jin Huang, NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States
Wei Li1, Yuejian Zhu2, Malaquias Pena1, Xiaqiong Zhou3, Dingchen Hou4 and Christopher Melhauser4, (1)NOAA College Park, College Park, MD, United States, (2)NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, United States, (3)IMSG at NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, United States, (4)National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States
Bidyut Bikash Goswami1, Boualem Khouider2, R. P. M. Murli Krishna3, Parthasarathi Mukhopadhyay3 and Andrew Majda4, (1)New York University Abu Dhabi, Centre for Prototype Climate Modelling, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, (2)University of Victoria, Mathematics and Statistics, Victoria, BC, Canada, (3)Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, (4)New York University, New York, NY, United States
Malaquias Peña, IMSG at EMC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States, Suranjana Saha, National Centers For Environmental Prediction-Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD, United States, Xingren Wu, IMSG and EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States, Jiande Wang, IMSG AND EMC/NCEP/NOAA, College Park, MD, United States, Patrick Tripp, IMSG, College Park, MD, United States, Shrinivas Moorthi, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States and Partha Sarathi S Bhattacharjee, IMSG at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, United States
Arun Kumar, NOAA/NCEP, Climate Prediction Center, College Park, MD, United States
Clark David Rowley1, Patrick J Hogan2, Sergey Frolov3, Mozheng Wei2, Prasad G Thoppil2, Ole Martin Smedstad4, Neil P Barton5 and Craig H Bishop6, (1)Naval Research Laboratory, Ocean Sciences Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (2)Naval Research Laboratory, Oceanography Division, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (3)University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)Vencore Services and Solutions, Inc, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (5)Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA, United States, (6)Naval Research Lab Monterey, Marine Meteorology, Monterey, CA, United States
William Joseph Barham, University of Colorado at Boulder, Applied Mathematics, Boulder, CO, United States and Ian Grooms, University of Colorado at Boulder, Applied Mathematics, Boulder, United States
Patrick J Hogan1, E Joseph Metzger1, Ole Martin Smedstad2, D. Franklin2 and Alan J Wallcraft1, (1)Naval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States, (2)Vencore, Stennis Space Center, MS, United States
Stephan Juricke1, Laure Zanna2, Dave MacLeod1, Antje Weisheimer3 and Tim Palmer4, (1)University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)University of Oxford, Dept. of Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, (3)University of Oxford, Department of Physics, National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), Oxford, United Kingdom, (4)University of Oxford, Physics/AOPP, Oxford, United Kingdom
Luis Zamudio, Florida State University, COAPS, Tallahassee, FL, United States and James A Ridout, US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, United States
Guotu Li1, Milan Curcic2, Mohamed Iskandarani3, Shuyi S Chen4 and Omar M Knio1,5, (1)Duke University, Mechanical Engineering and Material Science, Durham, NC, United States, (2)University of Miami, Miami, United States, (3)University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric and Earth Science, Miami, United States, (4)University of Washington, Atmospheric and Climate Science, Seattle, United States, (5)King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia
Deepak Narayanan Subramani1, Patrick J Haley Jr2 and Pierre F J Lermusiaux1, (1)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States, (2)Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Cambridge, United States
