GC52C:
Toward Better Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Variability: From Ecosystem Processes to Agricultural Adaptation and Decision Making I

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Session ID#: 15559

Session Description:
Climate variability (CV) is a critical driver of climate change impacts to both managed and unmanaged ecosystems. To properly understand its ecological impacts, it’s necessary to quantify how ecosystems have historically responded to climate variability, and to characterize the uncertainty in projected impacts. In agricultural systems, assessing impacts of climate variability also requires understanding dynamics of farmer adaptation and decision-making. Here we seek new efforts to quantify both historical and future impacts of climate variability on unmanaged ecosystems and in agriculture, the most extensive managed ecosystem: e.g., i) empirical/process-based methods for estimating CV impacts to ecosystems across multiple spatio-temporal scales; ii) identifying key sources of CV and methodological factors lead to uncertainty; iii) new CV forecasting methods at relevant scales for understanding ecosystem response; iv) translating forecasts into useful decision support for natural resource managers and farmers; v) attributing farmer decisions to CV viz a viz socioeconomic and ecological circumstances.
Primary Convener:  Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States
Conveners:  Lyndon D Estes, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, Jeff Atkins, Virginia Commonwealth University, Biology, Richmond, United States and Erin Swails, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States
Chairs:  Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States and Lyndon D Estes, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Jeff Atkins, Virginia Commonwealth University, Biology, Richmond, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • IN - Earth and Space Science Informatics
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1640 Remote sensing [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Rapid Monitoring of Drought Impacts on Small-Scale Farms in Africa through Integration of Farmer SMS data and Environmental Sensors (Invited) (121592)
Tom P Evans1, Kelly K Caylor2, Lyndon D Estes3, Beth A Plale4, Shahzeen Attari4 and Kurt Waldman4, (1)Indiana University Bloomington, Center for the Study of Institutions, Populations, and Environmental Change (CIPEC) and Department of Geography, Bloomington, IN, United States, (2)University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA, United States, (3)Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States, (4)Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States
Impacts of paleo-climatic variability on ecosystem stability and model performance in the modern era (Invited) (123137)
Christine Rollinson, Boston University, Boston, United States, Jaclyn Matthes, Wellesley College, Wellesley, MA, United States, Michael Dietze, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States, David JP Moore, University of Arizona, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, Tucson, AZ, United States, Jason S McLachlan, University of Notre Dame, Notre Dame, IN, United States, Ann Raiho, Funga PBC, Austin, United States and PalEON Project
Global climate shocks to agriculture from 1950 – 2015 (178184)
Nicole D Jackson, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Civil & Environmental Engineering, Urbana, United States, Megan Konar, University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Urbana, IL, United States, Peter Debaere, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, United States and Justin Sheffield, Princeton University, Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton, NJ, United States
Merging fine and coarse resolution remotely sensed data with household-level survey data to evaluate small-scale vulnerability to climate change in West Africa (156746)
Kathryn Grace, University of Minnesota Twin Cities, Geography, Environment and Society, Minneapolis, MN, United States and Gregory J Husak, University of California Santa Barbara, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA, United States
Multi-Scale Weather-within-Climate Information and Forecasts for Decision Support in Agriculture (125108)
Amor V M Ines, Michigan State University, Department of Plant, Soil and Microbial Sciences, East Lansing, MI, United States and Dr. Eunjin Han, Ph.D., USDA ARS, Adaptive Cropping Systems Laboratory, Beltsville, United States
Actual vs. Perceived Climate Variability among Smallholding Rice Farmers (196270)
Amanda Carrico, University of Colorado at Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, Jonathan Magnolia M Gilligan, Vanderbilt University, Earth & Environmental Sciences, Nashville, TN, United States and Heather B. Truelove, University of North Florida, Department of Psychology, Jacksonville, FL, United States

See more of: Global Environmental Change