GC34C:
Interpretation and Uncertainty in Climate, Earth System, Integrated Assessment, and Impact Models and Observations II

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Session ID#: 15638

Session Description:
Interpreting climate simulations, associated observational data, and assessing their uncertainties are essential to understanding changes in atmospheric, land, oceanic, and socio-economic systems and processes. Quantified uncertainty is needed to identify human-induced causes of climate change, to attribute the occurrence of extreme weather events to anthropogenic factors as well as to predict the impact of the evolving polar climate. We seek contributions in model interpretation, evaluation of models against observations, as well as studies that identify, quantify, or interpret uncertainty in climate models and/or observations. Contributions may address models and observations at multiple spatial and temporal scales. We welcome all studies that use these models in forecasting, sensitivity analyses, data assimilation and statistical inverse problems.
Primary Convener:  Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
Conveners:  Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States, Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Maoyi Huang, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Richland, WA, United States
Chairs:  Donald D Lucas, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Elisabeth A Lloyd, Indiana University Bloomington, History and Philosophy of Science and Medicine, Bloomington, IN, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Jaideep Ray, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • EP - Earth and Planetary Surface Processes
  • PP - Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

0550 Model verification and validation [COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1990 Uncertainty [INFORMATICS]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Probabilistic attribution of individual unprecedented extreme events (Invited) (120784)
Noah S Diffenbaugh, Stanford University, Earth System Science and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, United States
A Simple Approach to Account for Climate Model Interdependence in Multi-Model Ensembles (137293)
Nadja Herger, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Gab Abramowitz, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia, Oliver Marc Angelil, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, Reto Knutti, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland and Ben Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Sustainable Odds (Invited) (122817)
Leonard A Smith, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States
Cracking The Climate Change Conundrum With Derivatives (Invited) (122150)
James Annan, Blue Skies Research, Settle, United Kingdom
Simple Weighting Methods to Combine Multimodel Projections (177532)
Ruth Lorenz, Jan Sedlacek and Reto Knutti, ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Sources of Uncertainty and the Interpretation of Short-Term Fluctuations (Invited) (176747)
Stephan Lewandowsky, University Western Australia, Crawley, WA, Australia; University of Bristol, Bristol, BS8, United Kingdom, James Risbey, CSIRO Hobart, Hobart, TAS, Australia, Kevin Cowtan, University of York, York, United Kingdom and Stefan Rahmstorf, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

See more of: Global Environmental Change