GC14B:
Current and Future Hydroclimate Changes III

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Session ID#: 15785

Session Description:
The future world will experience a different hydroclimate, and externally forced changes are already detectable in various hydrological observations.  However, observational uncertainty, the sparsity and length of observational coverage, model errors and biases, and gaps in our theoretical understanding make the detection of hydroclimate changes  significantly more challenging than the detection of temperature changes.  Moreover, despite their importance for climate change adaptation, projected changes in hydroclimate variables are still uncertain at all spatial scales, particularly over land.  

This session emphasizes the physical mechanisms that dictate hydroclimate responses to external forcing.  We welcome submissions on all aspects of hydroclimate change, particularly those that use a combination of theory, modeling, and/or observations to understand the underlying processes. We encourage contributions that identify observed changes or projected shifts (location, intensity, seasonality) in precipitation or other hydroclimate variables (snow cover, evapotranspiration…) and/or  benefit from multivariate analysis, uncertainty regional analysis, uncertainty quantification, or innovative metrics.

Primary Convener:  Kate Marvel, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States
Conveners:  Kate Marvel, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States, Celine Bonfils, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States and Debbie Polson, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
Chairs:  Kate Marvel, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States and Celine Bonfils, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Kate Marvel, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Columbia University of New York, Center for Climate Systems Research, New York, NY, United States
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1626 Global climate models [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1655 Water cycles [GLOBAL CHANGE]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Mechanisms of change in the seasonality of tropical precipitation: comprehensive simulations, idealizations, and the bottom line for regional projections. (Invited) (169071)
Michela Biasutti, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Statistical Analysis of Seasonality and Trends in Rainy and Dry Season in the Amazon: Present Climate and Future Projections (178029)
Lincoln Muniz Alves, INPE National Institute for Space Research, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil and Jose A Marengo, CEMADEN National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters, Research and Development, Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil
Heterogeneous Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation Extremes during Growth and Mature Phases of Atmospheric Warming (188744)
Pradipta Parhi, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States, Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Upmanu Lall, Columbia University of New York, Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, New York, United States and Pierre Gentine, Columbia University, Earth Institute, New York, United States
A dynamical characterization of the uncertainty in projections of regional precipitation change in the semi-arid tropics (138436)
Alessandra Giannini, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-Century megadrought risk in the American Southwest. (Invited) (161205)
Toby Ault, Cornell University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Ithaca, NY, United States, Justin S Mankin, LDEO of Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States, Benjamin Cook, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States and Jason E Smerdon, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
Transpiration-driven aridification of the American West in 21st-Century model projections (165705)
Justin S Mankin1,2, Jason E Smerdon3, Benjamin Cook4, Park Williams5 and Richard Seager3, (1)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (2)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Ocean and Climate Physics, Palisades, United States, (3)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (4)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States, (5)University of California, Los Angeles, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, United States
Seasonal Shifts in the Western US Hydroclimate (140199)
Jelena Lukovic, Assistant Professor, Geography, BELGRADE, Serbia and John C H Chiang, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Significant Historical and Projected Increases in Evaporative Demand in the United States (123975)
Darren L Ficklin, Indiana University Bloomington, Department of Geography, Bloomington, IN, United States and Kimberly A Novick, Indiana University Bloomington, School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Bloomington, IN, United States

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