GC24D:
Impacts and Mitigation for 1.5°C Warming and Other Warming Targets II

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Session ID#: 15817

Session Description:
With the COP21 agreements calling for keeping warming “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C” the scientific community has started to explore both impact consequences and mitigation requirements of such stringent goals. This session invites contributions that characterize both the benefits of this level of mitigation along assessments of costs and feasibility.  We seek either analyses that explicitly compare the consequences of specific goals (1.5°C vs 2°C, and higher) or analyses that successfully draw a robust relation between arbitrary levels of warming and impacts, i.e., not necessarily conceived for these targets but nevertheless informative in assessing their relative costs and potential climate risks.
Primary Convener:  Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Convener:  Ben Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
Chairs:  Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Ben Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Claudia Tebaldi, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States

Cross-Listed:
  • PA - Public Affairs
  • SI - Societal Impacts and Policy Sciences
Index Terms:

1616 Climate variability [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1622 Earth system modeling [GLOBAL CHANGE]
1630 Impacts of global change [GLOBAL CHANGE]
6304 Benefit-cost analysis [POLICY SCIENCES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

The Implications of Deep Mitigation Pathways (Invited) (149132)
Katherine V Calvin, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States
Pathways to 1.5 degrees: new GCM simulations for scenarios which meet the Paris temperature targets (165013)
Benjamin M Sanderson1, Yangyang Xu2, Claudia Tebaldi3, Brian C O'Neill4 and J F Lamarque4, (1)Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, (2)Texas A&M University, College Station, United States, (3)Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, United States, (4)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Half a Degree Additional Warming; Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI): Experimental design and initial results (176529)
Dann Mitchell1, Emily Shuckburgh2, Jan S Fuglestvedt3, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner4, Richard Arthur Betts5, Piers Forster6, Karsten Haustein7, Neil Massey8, Rashyd Zaaboul9, Krishna M Achutarao10, Rachel James8, Dáithí A Stone11, Hideo Shiogama12 and Myles Robert Allen1, (1)University of Oxford, Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom, (2)NERC British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, United Kingdom, (3)Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, (4)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, (5)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (6)University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, (7)University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, (8)University of Oxford, ECI/School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford, United Kingdom, (9)ICBA, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, (10)Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India, (11)Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, (12)National Institute for environmental studies, Tsukuba, Japan
Future emissions pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C (146958)
Richard Millar, University of Oxford, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom, Jan Sigurd Fuglestvedt, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Oslo, Norway, Michael Grubb, University College London, London, United Kingdom, Joeri Rogelj, IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria, Ragnhild B Skeie, CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway, Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4, United Kingdom, Piers Forster, University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, United Kingdom, David J Frame, NIWA National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand, Raymond Pierrehumbert, University of Oxford, Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom and Myles Robert Allen, University of Oxford, Physics, Oxford, United Kingdom
Differentiation regional climate impact indicators at 1.5°C and 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels (Invited) (140636)
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Climate Analytics GmbH, Berlin, Germany
IPCC Reasons for Concern Regarding Climate Change Risks: Implications for 1.5 and 2 C Targets (187793)
Michael Oppenheimer, Princeton University, School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton, NJ, United States and Brian C O'Neill, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Limiting Warming to 1.5°C vs. 2°C May Reduce Committed Global Sea Level Rise Impacts by Half (164732)
Benjamin Strauss1, Scott Andrew Kulp1 and Anders Levermann2, (1)Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States, (2)Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Challenges for the geosciences after the Paris agreement (178094)
Reto Knutti1, Jan Sedlacek1, Joeri Rogelj2 and Erich M Fischer1, (1)ETH Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland, (2)IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

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