GC12B:
Quantitative Methods for Addressing Model Uncertainties in Climate and Hydrology Projections and Prioritizing Measurement Needs I

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Session ID#: 15916

Session Description:
The actionable climate change science studies, including environmental modeling, impacts assessment, mitigation and adaptation plan for food-water-energy sectors depend upon reliable hydrological projections at regional scales. Hydrological projections over various temporal and spatial scales are subject to uncertainties from various sources including global climate models, emission scenarios, downscaling methodology, hydrological modeling, parameter estimation, and internal variability in the climate system. To navigate the cloud of uncertainties, it is also important to understand the robustness in hydrological projections based on physical principles, e.g., intensification of hydrological cycle under global warming, and the ‘limits’ concept in hydrology, e.g., the Budyko Framework. We solicit research topics from climate and hydrologic communities that may include but not limited to: emerging issues in hydroclimatic variability and changes, uncertainty quantification, theoretical and modeling framework to reduce uncertainties, uncertainty analysis for making decisions and forming policies, and innovative data assimilation and sensitivity analysis techniques for incorporating uncertainty.
Primary Convener:  Kimberly C Brumble, University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada
Conveners:  Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States, Joseph R Kasprzyk, University of Colorado Boulder, Civil Environmental & Architectural Engineering, Boulder, United States and Randall Friedl, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
Chairs:  Kimberly C Brumble, University of Calgary, Department of Philosophy, Calgary, AB, Canada and Randall Friedl, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Sanjiv Kumar, Auburn University, College of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn, United States
Co-Organized with:
Natural Hazards, Natural Hazards, Hydrology, and Atmospheric Sciences

Cross-Listed:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • NH - Natural Hazards

Proposed Co-Organized Session with:
  • A - Atmospheric Sciences
  • H - Hydrology
  • NH - Natural Hazards
Index Terms:

1807 Climate impacts [HYDROLOGY]
1847 Modeling [HYDROLOGY]
1952 Modeling [INFORMATICS]
3355 Regional modeling [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Uncertainty Quantification in a Decision Support Framework (Invited) (181022)
Robert J Lempert, RAND Corporation Santa Monica, Santa Monica, CA, United States
Do Downscaled General Circulation Models Reliably Simulate Current Climatic Conditions? (158425)
Lauren Hay1, Andrew Raymond Bock2, Gregory J McCabe Jr3, Steven L Markstrom1 and Dwight Atkinson4, (1)USGS, National Research Program, Baltimore, MD, United States, (2)USGS Colorado Water Science Center Golden, Golden, CO, United States, (3)USGS Central Region Offices Denver, Denver, CO, United States, (4)EPA, Office of Water, Washington, DC, United States
Finding certainty in uncertain projections of warm-season precipitation in the southern U.S. Plains. (Invited) (182871)
Melissa S Bukovsky, Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources, Laramie, Wyoming, United States, Rachel Rose McCrary, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, Anji Seth, University of Connecticut, Groton, CT, United States and Linda Mearns, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Science Systems Engineering and Uncertainty Quantification for Sea Level Rise Projections and Implications for Prioritizing Measurements (183699)
Michael M Watkins1, Carmen Blackwood1, Eric Y Larour2, Daniel Limonadi3, Nicole Jeanne Schlegel4, Helene L Seroussi5 and Michael Schodlok6, (1)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, CA, United States, (2)NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, United States, (3)Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, United States, (4)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States, (5)Dartmouth College, Thayer School of Engineering, Hanover, NH, United States, (6)University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, United States
Quantified Objectives for Assessing the Contribution of Low Clouds to Climate Sensitivity and Variability (Invited) (148561)
Anthony D Del Genio1, Steven E Platnick2, Ralf Bennartz3, Stephen A Klein4, Roger Marchand5, Lazaros Oreopoulos2, Robert Pincus6 and Robert Wood7, (1)NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States, (2)NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)Vanderbilt University, Nashville, TN, United States, (4)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States, (5)Applied Physics Laboratory University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States, (6)Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States, (7)University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Seattle, United States
A Framework for Prioritizing NOAA’s Climate Data Portfolio to Improve Relevance and Value (149170)
Jeffrey L Privette1, Candace Hutchins2, Terry McPherson3 and Daniel Wunder2, (1)NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, Center for Weather and Climate, Asheville, United States, (2)Global Science and Technology Inc Greenbelt, Greenbelt, MD, United States, (3)LMI, McLean, VA, United States
Toward a Climate OSSE for NASA Earth Sciences (176953)
Stephen Sylvain Leroy, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA, United States, William Drew Collins, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Earth and Environmental Science, Berkeley, CA, United States, Daniel Feldman, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States, Robert D Field, Columbia University of New York, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Palisades, NY, United States, Yi Ming, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States, Steven Pawson, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, Greenbelt, United States, Ben Sanderson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States and Gavin A Schmidt, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States
The Impact of Climate Projection Method on the Analysis of Climate Change in Semi-arid Basins (197817)
Eve Halper, U.S Bureau of Reclamation, Phoenix Area Office, Glendale, United States and Eylon Shamir, Hydrologic Research Center, San Diego, United States

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