A41L:
Dynamics, Observations, and Predictability in Light of the Recent 2015–2016 El Niño Event III

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Session ID#: 16189

Session Description:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which arises from tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions, is the world's dominant climate signal on seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Despite progress in understanding its dynamics, ENSO still manages to surprise us. Examples include the curious case of the much weaker than expected 2014/15 El Niño, and the extreme (by some measures) 2015/16 El Niño. The international community is also actively engaged in redesigning the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS2020), as well as deepening the understanding of ENSO through numerical sensitivity experiments and multi-model inter comparisons (e.g. CMIP5/CMIP6)  -- in hopes of improving both seasonal predictions and decadal-to-centennial projections of the phenomenon. This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of ENSO, including dynamics, observations, impacts, predictability, climate model simulations and forecasts, paleo variability, and possible future changes.
Primary Convener:  Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States
Conveners:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States and Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States
Chairs:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States and Robert Stabler Webb, NOAA Boulder, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Nicholas A Bond, University of Washington Seattle Campus, Seattle, WA, United States
Index Terms:

3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3373 Tropical dynamics [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

Evolution of the 2015-16 El Niño: A Dynamics Perspective (167610)
Michael J McPhaden, NOAA Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States and Aaron F Z Levine, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States
Reviewing Predictions of the 2015-16 El Nino (Invited) (138403)
Michelle L L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS/NCEP/CPC, College Park, MD, United States
The NOAA El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign: Science Overview (Invited) (166866)
Randall M Dole1, J. Ryan Spackman2, Robert Stabler Webb3, Chris Barnet2, Robert Cifelli4, Gilbert P Compo5, Chris W Fairall6, Leslie M Hartten7, Andrew Hoell8, Janet M Intrieri9, George N Kiladis10, Paul E. Johnston11, Martin P Hoerling12, Matthew Newman13, Catherine Anne Smith14, Gary A Wick8, Daniel E Wolfe10 and Klaus Wolter5, (1)NOAA Earth System Research Lab, Boulder, CO, United States, (2)Science and Technology Corporation, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)NOAA Boulder, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (5)University of Colorado at Boulder, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States, (6)NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (7)Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States, (8)NOAA Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States, (9)National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (10)NOAA, Boulder, CO, United States, (11)Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, United States, (12)NOAA Boulder, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States, (13)University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, (14)Organization Not Listed, Washington, DC, United States
The 2015/16 El Niño Event as Recorded in Central Tropical Pacific Corals: Temperature, Hydrology, and Ocean Circulation Influences (187963)
Gemma O'Connor1, Kim M Cobb2, Hussein R Sayani3, Pamela R Grothe4, Alyssa R. Atwood5, Samantha Stevenson6, Nicholas Thomas Hitt1 and Jean Lynch-Stieglitz7, (1)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (2)Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, GA, United States, (3)Georgia Institute of Technology, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Atlanta, United States, (4)University of Mary Washington, Earth and Environmental Sciences, Fredericksburg, United States, (5)University of California Berkeley, Geography, Berkeley, CA, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States, (7)Georgia Institute of Technology Main Campus, Atlanta, GA, United States
The contrasting role of Westerly Wind Events in the evolution of El Niño during 2014 and 2015 (125882)
Martin Puy, LOCEAN, IPSL, Paris Cedex 05, France, Jérome Vialard, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, IPSL, Paris, France, Matthieu Lengaigne, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS-IRD-MNHN-Sorbonne Université, Paris, France, Eric Guilyardi, LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS/IRD/MNHN/Sorbonne Université, Paris, France, Aurore Voldoire, CNRM, Toulouse, France, Magdalena Balmaseda, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom, Christophe Menkes, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, UMR 250 ENTROPIE (IRD, CNRS, Ifremer, Université de la Réunion, Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie), BP A5, 98848, Nouméa, New Caledonia, Nouméa, New Caledonia, Gurvan Madec, LOCEAN-IPSL, Paris, France and Michael J McPhaden, NOAA Seattle, Seattle, WA, United States
Predictability of ENSO, the QBO, and European winter 2015/16 (172002)
Sarah Ineson1, Adam A Scaife2, Comer Ruth1, Nick J Dunstone1, David Fereday1, Christopher Kenneth Folland1, Elizabeth Good1, Margaret Gordon1, Leon Hermanson1, Alexey Karpechko3, Jeff R Knight1, Craig MacLachlan1, Anna Victoria Maidens1, Andrew Peterson1, Julia Slingo4, Doug M Smith1 and Brent Walker4, (1)Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, (2)University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, (3)Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland, (4)Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
How Climate Change Affected US Impacts of the 2015-16 El Niño (139057)
Martin P Hoerling, NOAA Boulder, ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States and Xiao-Wei Quan, NOAA Boulder, ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
Why did the 2015/16 El Niño Fail to Bring Excessive Precipitation to California? (131108)
Bor-Ting Jong, Columbia University of New York, Palisades, NY, United States, Mingfang Ting, Columbia University, New York, United States, Richard Seager, Columbia University, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States and Dong Eun Lee, Lamont -Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States

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