A34E:
Dynamics, Observations, and Predictability in Light of the Recent 2015–2016 El Niño Event II

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Session ID#: 16194

Session Description:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which arises from tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions, is the world's dominant climate signal on seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Despite progress in understanding its dynamics, ENSO still manages to surprise us. Examples include the curious case of the much weaker than expected 2014/15 El Niño, and the extreme (by some measures) 2015/16 El Niño. The international community is also actively engaged in redesigning the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS2020), as well as deepening the understanding of ENSO through numerical sensitivity experiments and multi-model inter comparisons (e.g. CMIP5/CMIP6)  -- in hopes of improving both seasonal predictions and decadal-to-centennial projections of the phenomenon. This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of ENSO, including dynamics, observations, impacts, predictability, climate model simulations and forecasts, paleo variability, and possible future changes.
Primary Convener:  Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States
Conveners:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States and Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States
Chairs:  Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States and Ken Takahashi, Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru
OSPA Liaison:  Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States
Index Terms:

3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3373 Tropical dynamics [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

A two year La Niña coming? (Invited) (136575)
Pedro N DiNezio1, Clara Deser2, Alicia R Karspeck3, Yuko Okumura4, Stephen G Yeager3, Gokhan Danabasoglu5 and Maria J Molina6, (1)University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States, (2)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics Division, Boulder, CO, United States, (3)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States, (4)University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, United States, (5)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Boulder, United States, (6)National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, United States
Multi-Model ENSO Predictability in the NMME (158771)
Benjamin P Kirtman, University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami, FL, United States
Are we nearing the limit of ENSO predictability? (193281)
Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States and Prashant D Sardeshmukh, CIRES, Boulder, CO, United States
Recent Decadal Variations of El Nino Predictability (197112)
Harry Hendon1, Guomin Wang2 and Mei Zhao1, (1)Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, (2)Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Distinct patterns of Tropical Pacific SST Anomaly and Their Impacts on North American Climate (168413)
Yuanyuan Guo, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China, Mingfang Ting, Columbia Climate School, New York, United States, Zhiping Wen, Fudan University, Shanghai, China and Dong Eun Lee, Columbia University of New York, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
The increasing control of the Atlantic Ocean on ENSO after the early 1990s (172152)
Jin-Yi Yu1, Houk Paek1, Lei Wang2,3 and Kewei Lyu4, (1)University of California Irvine, Department of Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States, (2)Guangdong Ocean University, College of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong, China, (3)Third Institute of Oceanography, State Oceanographic Administration of China, Xiamen, China, (4)University of California Irvine, Earth System Science, Irvine, CA, United States
The development of extreme El Niño in 2015: the role of westerly and easterly wind bursts, and preconditioning by the failed 2014 event (167146)
Shineng Hu, Duke University, Division of Earth and Climate Sciences, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States and Alexey V Fedorov, Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States
Observed El Niño SSTA development and the effects of Easterly and Westerly Wind events in 2014 and 2015. (183717)
Andrew M Chiodi1,2 and Don Harrison1, (1)NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, Seattle, WA, United States, (2)Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, United States

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