A33N:
ENSO Dynamics, Observations, and Predictability in Light of the Recent 2015–2016 El Niño Event I

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Session ID#: 16199

Session Description:
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which arises from tropical ocean-atmosphere interactions, is the world's dominant climate signal on seasonal-to-interannual timescales. Despite progress in understanding its dynamics, ENSO still manages to surprise us. Examples include the curious case of the much weaker than expected 2014/15 El Niño, and the extreme (by some measures) 2015/16 El Niño. The international community is also actively engaged in redesigning the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS2020), as well as deepening the understanding of ENSO through numerical sensitivity experiments and multi-model inter comparisons (e.g. CMIP5/CMIP6)  -- in hopes of improving both seasonal predictions and decadal-to-centennial projections of the phenomenon. This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of ENSO, including dynamics, observations, impacts, predictability, climate model simulations and forecasts, paleo variability, and possible future changes.
Primary Convener:  Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States
Conveners:  Matthew Newman, University of Colorado/CIRES and NOAA/PSL, Boulder, United States, Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States and Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States
Chairs:  Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, NOAA/GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States and Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States
OSPA Liaison:  Antonietta Capotondi, University of Colorado, CIRES, Boulder, United States
Index Terms:

3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
3373 Tropical dynamics [ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES]
4215 Climate and interannual variability [OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL]
4522 ENSO [OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL]

Abstracts Submitted to this Session:

ENSO Prediction and Predictability (Invited) (127535)
Mark A Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, United States
A New Paradigm of ENSO's Impact on Asia Monsoon (195942)
Fei-Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States, Malte F Stuecker, University of Hawai’i at Mānoa, International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, United States and Axel Timmermann, IPRC, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
Asymmetric Modulation of El Niño and La Niña and the Linkage to Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability (165458)
Yuko Okumura, Tianyi Sun and Xian Wu, University of Texas at Austin, Institute for Geophysics, Austin, United States
A Simple Stochastic Model for El Niño with Westerly Wind Bursts (140647)
Sulian Thual1, Andrew Majda2, Nan Chen2 and Samuel N Stechmann3, (1)New York University, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY, United States, (2)New York University, New York, NY, United States, (3)University of Wisconsin Madison, Madison, WI, United States
ENSO and its modulations on annual and multidecadal timescales revealed by Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis (169315)
Dimitrios Giannakis, New York University, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York, NY, United States and Joanna Maja Slawinska, Rutgers University, Center for Environmental Prediction, New Brunswick, NJ, United States
A Simple Theoretical Nonlinear Model of Strong and Moderate El Niño Regimes (136018)
Ken Takahashi, Instituto Geofísico del Perú, Lima, Peru, Christina Karamperidou, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Honolulu, HI, United States and Boris Dewitte, LEGOS/IRD, SYSCO2, TOULOUSE, France
Evaluating the ENSO-dynamics in CMIP Simulations in the framework of the Linear Recharge Oscillator Model (130406)
Asha Vijayeta, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia and Dietmar Dommenget, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Volcanic Impact on ENSO (168265)
Evgeniya Predybaylo, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Earth Science and Engineering, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, Georgiy L Stenchikov, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia and Andrew Thorne Wittenberg, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States

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